0xA88a9f37dAb3B500a4bF3d4C1bA254F9E35b2F94-1768377377767
0x154f4544ffbeb1e6c69f62c5e5aaa80d44e72c7b
- Realised P&L
- $15.36
- Volume
- $640.00
- Markets traded
- 29
- Open portfolio
- $195.52
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.4%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded29
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration20.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample20 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)95.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration22.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · No | 0.541 | 0.594 | $43.90 | +$3.90 |
| Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? · No | 0.498 | 0.905 | $36.37 | +$16.37 |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes | 0.289 | 0.325 | $33.70 | +$3.70 |
| Will Religious Zionist Party–Zehut win 6% or more of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections? · Yes | 0.284 | 0.310 | $21.82 | +$1.82 |
| Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31? · No | 0.910 | 0.930 | $20.44 | +$0.44 |
| Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Yes | 0.400 | 0.510 | $19.13 | +$4.13 |
| Will Syria recognize Israel by December 31? · No | 0.870 | 0.965 | $11.09 | +$1.09 |
| Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · No | 0.567 | 0.515 | $9.08 | −$0.92 |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.416 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.15at 0.828Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
- +$2.82at 0.780Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?
- +$1.66at 0.858Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
- +$1.49at 0.870Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?
- +$1.36at 0.880Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-20 09:05 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.2799999978 | $10.00 |
| 09-18 18:59 | Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | BUY | 0.4 | $15.00 |
| 09-17 15:36 | Will Religious Zionist Party–Zehut win 6% or more of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections? | BUY | 0.3567141504 | $10.00 |
| 09-17 15:33 | Will Religious Zionist Party–Zehut win 6% or more of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections? | BUY | 0.2360681533 | $10.00 |
| 09-17 13:17 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.3099999954 | $10.00 |
| 08-27 13:17 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.2799999854 | $10.00 |
| 08-18 13:33 | Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by August 31? | BUY | 0.9729999277 | $10.00 |
| 08-18 13:23 | Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31? | BUY | 0.91 | $10.00 |
| 08-18 13:22 | Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.4729999762 | $10.00 |
| 08-17 14:42 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | BUY | 0.8899999947 | $10.00 |
| 08-17 14:39 | Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31? | BUY | 0.91 | $10.00 |
| 08-03 04:53 | Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? | BUY | 0.3699999771 | $10.00 |
| 07-19 20:06 | Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.515999949 | $10.00 |
| 07-16 08:56 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.415999978 | $5.00 |
| 07-14 20:03 | Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? | BUY | 0.7599999878 | $10.00 |