ipar777
0x154e0eff147f978aafecb37f72d41c87eb79e1ab
- Realised P&L
- $-81.66
- Volume
- $106.7k
- Markets traded
- 44
- Open portfolio
- $5.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded44
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration32.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample39 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)43.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration77.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.500 | 0.770 | $3.9k | +$1.4k |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.230 | $1.2k | −$1.4k |
| Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in October? · Yes | 0.790 | 1.000 | $1.27 | +$0.27 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in October? · Yes | 0.550 | 0.535 | $0.97 | −$0.03 |
| Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in October? · Yes | 0.134 | 0.041 | $0.31 | −$0.69 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET · Down | 0.850 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 66°F or higher on May 14? · No | 0.370 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.88at 0.860Ethereum all time high in Q4 2024?
- +$3.19at 0.940Will Zoran Milanović be the next President of Croatia?
- +$2.05at 0.830Will Bitcoin reach $135k in October?
- +$1.13at 0.78030m Bluesky users in November?
- +$0.76at 0.985Ding Liren plays in 2024 World Chess Championship?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-08 18:00 | Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in October? | BUY | 0.549999945 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 18:00 | Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in October? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 17:59 | Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in October? | BUY | 0.1339999922 | $1.00 |
| 05-12 18:14 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET | BUY | 0.849999983 | $5.00 |
| 05-12 18:11 | Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 66°F or higher on May 14? | BUY | 0.3699998631 | $1.00 |
| 05-12 18:10 | Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? | SELL | 0.996 | $199.80 |
| 05-11 09:49 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 11? | BUY | 0.92 | $5.00 |
| 05-11 09:47 | Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? | BUY | 0.997 | $200.00 |
| 02-17 21:14 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.994 | $792.17 |
| 02-16 11:38 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.995 | $792.97 |
| 10-03 09:58 | Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? | BUY | 0.996 | $40.00 |
| 10-03 09:58 | Will Bitcoin reach $135k in October? | BUY | 0.829999956 | $10.00 |
| 06-24 14:01 | Will Trump say "Big Beautiful Bill" during his 4th of July remarks? | BUY | 0.52 | $1.00 |
| 06-24 14:01 | Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" during his 4th of July remarks? | BUY | 0.66 | $1.00 |
| 06-24 14:01 | US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30? | BUY | 0.0149999854 | $1.00 |