Armenia
0x1537ed4d534ec88634af690b9b03145dbcaec480
- Realised P&L
- $23.3k
- Volume
- $1.74M
- Markets traded
- 366
- Open portfolio
- $5.4k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.3%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded366
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration35.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration57.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$16.4kat 0.500Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- +$11.7kat 0.324Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?
- +$10.5kat 0.034Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope?
- +$9.4kat 0.027Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
- +$7.6kat 0.036Will Catherine Connolly win the Irish Presidential Election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-10 20:39 | Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.0409174899 | $28.91 |
| 05-02 12:00 | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | SELL | 0.997 | $3.6k |
| 04-23 16:52 | Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.001 | $2.30 |
| 04-23 16:51 | Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.002 | $4.60 |
| 04-23 16:51 | Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.002 | $6.00 |
| 04-23 16:51 | Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.003 | $6.90 |
| 04-23 16:50 | Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.003 | $10.00 |
| 04-23 16:50 | Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.004 | $9.20 |
| 04-23 16:50 | Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.005 | $11.50 |
| 04-23 16:49 | Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.013 | $29.90 |
| 04-23 16:49 | Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.021 | $23.38 |
| 04-23 16:48 | Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.032 | $36.80 |
| 04-23 16:48 | Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.0552173582 | $127.02 |
| 04-23 16:48 | Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.0694015 | $159.62 |
| 04-22 08:00 | Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.035 | $70.00 |