dsge
0x1535855fff202723aff0296b68ea55e5ce62e8ea
- Realised P&L
- $-24.28
- Volume
- $2.2k
- Markets traded
- 7
- Open portfolio
- $2.40
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded7
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample4 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)25.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration32.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 3.50% and 3.99%? · Yes | 0.026 | 0.003 | $0.77 | −$7.16 |
| Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be less than 3.00%? · Yes | 0.004 | 0.002 | $0.64 | −$1.24 |
| Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 4.00% and 4.49%? · Yes | 0.193 | 0.019 | $0.58 | −$5.21 |
| Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 3.00% and 3.49%? · Yes | 0.023 | 0.002 | $0.41 | −$5.91 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.98at 0.013Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after April 2026 meeting?
- +$-0.16at 0.745Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?
- +$-0.56at 0.227No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s April 2026 meeting?
- +$-6.02at 0.223Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-08 21:22 | Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after April 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.008 | $0.57 |
| 04-01 17:33 | Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 3.50% and 3.99%? | BUY | 0.0486186667 | $1.46 |
| 04-01 17:31 | Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 3.00% and 3.49%? | BUY | 0.026 | $1.07 |
| 04-01 17:30 | Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 3.00% and 3.49%? | BUY | 0.025 | $2.17 |
| 04-01 17:30 | Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be less than 3.00%? | BUY | 0.0041238697 | $0.67 |
| 04-01 17:05 | Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 3.00% and 3.49%? | BUY | 0.027 | $1.08 |
| 04-01 17:05 | Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be less than 3.00%? | BUY | 0.003 | $0.21 |
| 03-31 19:40 | Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 3.50% and 3.99%? | BUY | 0.0176950272 | $0.91 |
| 03-31 19:38 | Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 4.00% and 4.49%? | BUY | 0.24 | $2.40 |
| 03-31 19:37 | Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 3.50% and 3.99%? | BUY | 0.016 | $0.16 |
| 03-31 19:36 | Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 3.00% and 3.49%? | BUY | 0.02 | $1.00 |
| 03-28 20:40 | Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 3.50% and 3.99%? | BUY | 0.1399999291 | $1.50 |
| 03-28 20:39 | Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 3.00% and 3.49%? | BUY | 0.0178844668 | $1.00 |
| 03-28 20:39 | Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be less than 3.00%? | BUY | 0.0051692499 | $1.00 |
| 03-27 22:03 | Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice? | BUY | 0.17 | $3.10 |