Quicklyintothebowl
0x152b8bc145d0ec5f0656dc95808592deb77050be
- Realised P&L
- $-720.82
- Volume
- $16.7k
- Markets traded
- 94
- Open portfolio
- $307.50
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-4.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded94
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)98.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration55.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of October 12 above $1.00? · Yes | 0.999 | 0.900 | $169.20 | −$18.61 |
| Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of October 12 above $20? · Yes | 0.999 | 0.995 | $138.31 | −$0.56 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$34.18at 0.750Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $352.50 Week of April 20 2026?
- +$16.36at 0.924Will CZ post 0-19 posts from April 14 to April 21, 2026?
- +$16.01at 0.942Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $435 Week of April 20 2026?
- +$9.66at 0.976EdgeX FDV above $4B one day after launch?
- +$7.20at 0.940GPT-5.6 released by June 5, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-10 14:04 | Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of October 12 above $1.00? | BUY | 0.999 | $187.81 |
| 10-10 14:03 | Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of October 12 above $20? | BUY | 0.999 | $138.86 |
| 09-27 00:37 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.996 | $118.52 |
| 09-21 05:21 | Will CZ post 80-99 posts from September 18 to September 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.998 | $29.94 |
| 09-21 05:20 | Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $1.25 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.99 | $4.95 |
| 09-21 05:20 | Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $1.25 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.978 | $41.08 |
| 09-21 05:20 | Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $1.00 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.998 | $99.80 |
| 09-21 05:19 | Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.70 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.998 | $49.90 |
| 09-16 07:57 | Will Solana dip to $40 September 14-20? | BUY | 0.999 | $135.86 |
| 09-16 07:56 | Will XRP reach $2.10 September 14-20? | BUY | 0.999 | $84.92 |
| 09-12 23:55 | Will Ted Cruz post 20-39 posts from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.9985007489 | $60.00 |
| 09-12 23:50 | Will CZ post 100-119 posts from September 8 to September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $89.54 |
| 09-12 23:50 | Will CZ post 140-159 posts from September 8 to September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $79.56 |
| 09-05 14:54 | Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at <$1.00 on the final day of trading of the week of Sep 7 – Sep 11? | BUY | 0.999 | $119.88 |
| 09-05 14:54 | Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $7.00-$8.00 on the final day of trading of the week of Sep 7 – Sep 11? | BUY | 0.999 | $97.90 |