0x150d5043610251f1787d4f7f5c72eb8629b0f44b
0x150d5043610251f1787d4f7f5c72eb8629b0f44b
- Realised P&L
- $1.2k
- Volume
- $64.2k
- Markets traded
- 76
- Open portfolio
- $244.57
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.9%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded76
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration12.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration54.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Altcoin market cap dip to $150B before 2027? · Yes | 0.223 | 0.155 | $132.70 | −$58.64 |
| US imposes new sanctions on China by November 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.485 | 0.275 | $86.76 | −$66.39 |
| Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? · Yes | 0.006 | 0.004 | $14.86 | −$6.70 |
| US imposes new sanctions on China by October 31, 2026? · No | 0.099 | 0.051 | $10.26 | −$9.64 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$203.60at 0.605Will Seattle have between 1.5 and 2 inches of precipitation in September?
- +$199.99at 0.180Will Seattle have less than 0.5 inches of precipitation in August?
- +$183.08at 0.120Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on October 29?
- +$170.79at 0.183Will Seattle have between 1 and 1.5 inches of precipitation in September?
- +$142.13at 0.396Will Bank of America (BAC) beat quarterly earnings?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-02 02:26 | US imposes new sanctions on China by November 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.4495173009 | $62.49 |
| 11-02 02:26 | US imposes new sanctions on China by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1 | $10.00 |
| 11-02 02:18 | US imposes new sanctions on China by November 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.52 | $57.20 |
| 11-02 02:18 | US imposes new sanctions on China by November 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.5 | $27.50 |
| 10-30 21:39 | Altcoin market cap dip to $150B before 2027? | BUY | 0.2495238095 | $52.40 |
| 10-30 20:48 | Altcoin market cap dip to $150B before 2027? | BUY | 0.25 | $15.16 |
| 10-30 20:44 | Altcoin market cap dip to $150B before 2027? | BUY | 0.2424064111 | $108.14 |
| 10-30 20:43 | Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $800B and $900B on October 31? | SELL | 0.936 | $65.52 |
| 10-30 20:42 | Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $800B and $900B on October 31? | SELL | 0.9443773585 | $50.05 |
| 10-30 20:25 | Will Alphabet’s market capitalization be between $3.50T and $4.00T at the end of October 2026? | SELL | 0.005150681 | $0.54 |
| 10-30 20:03 | Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $800B and $900B on October 31? | BUY | 0.9527584202 | $165.48 |
| 10-30 20:00 | Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $800B and $900B on October 31? | BUY | 0.9509999997 | $60.00 |
| 10-30 19:06 | Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $800B and $900B on October 31? | BUY | 0.8706634407 | $164.63 |
| 10-30 17:21 | Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $800B and $900B on October 31? | BUY | 0.7932620855 | $79.42 |
| 10-30 14:33 | Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $800B and $900B on October 31? | BUY | 0.56 | $11.20 |