Tonnic
0x150c6974a95da6b8a1dcb3805de25d0cc5251c8d
- Realised P&L
- $325.89
- Volume
- $34.1k
- Markets traded
- 28
- Open portfolio
- $1.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar1.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded28
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration24.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample20 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)70.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration44.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.297 | 0.381 | $491.70 | +$108.26 |
| Will Yaël Braun-Pivet advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? · No | 0.926 | 0.982 | $291.53 | +$16.52 |
| Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? · No | 0.940 | 0.933 | $261.38 | −$1.86 |
| Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.032 | 0.015 | $28.93 | −$31.14 |
| Will Fabien Roussel be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.857 | 0.840 | $21.76 | −$0.43 |
| Will Carole Delga advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? · No | 0.913 | 0.976 | $10.31 | +$0.67 |
| Will Jérôme Guedj win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections? · Yes | 0.009 | 0.010 | $1.01 | +$0.10 |
| Will Halla Tómasdóttir attend King Harald V's funeral? · No | 0.740 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$44.40 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$23.00at 0.110Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?
- +$17.28at 0.920Will the Democratic Party win the CA-12 House seat?
- +$14.83at 0.047Will Jordan Bardella advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
- +$14.68at 0.920Will the Democratic Party win the MD-04 House seat?
- +$8.86at 0.819Will Derek Dooley be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-13 18:41 | Will Philippe Brun win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections? | SELL | 0.025 | $0.04 |
| 09-10 17:16 | Will Fabien Roussel be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.88 | $108.40 |
| 09-09 16:34 | Will Halla Tómasdóttir attend King Harald V's funeral? | BUY | 0.74 | $44.40 |
| 09-06 18:38 | Will Fabien Roussel be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.88 | $31.72 |
| 09-06 18:38 | Will Fabien Roussel be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.85 | $108.97 |
| 09-06 06:28 | Will the Democratic Party win the CA-12 House seat? | SELL | 0.978 | $162.08 |
| 09-05 18:06 | Will Michel-Edouard Leclerc be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.94 | $47.00 |
| 09-04 14:38 | Will Yaël Braun-Pivet advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? | BUY | 0.9283153153 | $103.04 |
| 09-04 09:09 | Will Yaël Braun-Pivet advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? | SELL | 0.864 | $0.86 |
| 09-04 08:22 | Will Yaël Braun-Pivet advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? | BUY | 0.9270052174 | $213.21 |
| 09-04 08:10 | Will Yaël Braun-Pivet advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? | BUY | 0.92007992 | $40.00 |
| 09-04 08:09 | Will Yaël Braun-Pivet advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? | BUY | 0.919 | $11.35 |
| 09-03 14:48 | Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.02 | $12.44 |
| 09-02 07:21 | Will Raphael Glucksmann win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections? | SELL | 0.3 | $60.00 |
| 09-02 07:18 | Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.018 | $16.55 |