0x15074b29d3c90e6d9ad1b93ec7bd928f8191fb2a
- Realised P&L
- $-0.38
- Volume
- $1.1k
- Markets traded
- 144
- Open portfolio
- $3.05
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded144
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)72.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration44.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yo FDV above $100M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.220 | 0.335 | $1.37 | +$0.47 |
| Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.910 | 0.982 | $1.08 | +$0.08 |
| Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 950m and 960m by September 30? · Yes | 0.600 | 0.360 | $0.60 | −$0.40 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET · Up | 0.290 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 5, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET · Down | 0.450 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET · Down | 0.210 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET · Down | 0.310 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$8.80at 0.556Will Elon tweet 255 or more times August 1–August 8?
- +$6.61at 0.353Solana Up or Down - April 6, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET
- +$5.07at 0.384XRP Up or Down - March 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET
- +$2.78at 0.528Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET
- +$2.78at 0.528Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 5, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-09 16:37 | Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 950m and 960m by September 30? | BUY | 0.59999988 | $1.00 |
| 09-05 16:25 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 5, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET | BUY | 0.4499997975 | $1.00 |
| 08-23 17:55 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET | BUY | 0.2899998666 | $1.00 |
| 08-23 17:52 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET | BUY | 0.3099998295 | $1.00 |
| 08-23 17:49 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET | SELL | 0.49 | $1.63 |
| 08-23 17:46 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET | BUY | 0.29999982 | $1.00 |
| 08-23 17:43 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET | BUY | 0.2099998677 | $1.00 |
| 07-13 12:09 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.6119998727 | $1.00 |
| 05-11 08:50 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.178 | $1.12 |
| 05-07 01:34 | Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.91 | $1.00 |
| 05-06 06:20 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.9349999579 | $1.00 |
| 05-06 06:20 | Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | BUY | 0.66 | $1.00 |
| 05-06 06:11 | Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET | BUY | 0.5099998317 | $1.00 |
| 05-06 06:11 | Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET | BUY | 0.5099998317 | $1.00 |
| 05-06 06:11 | Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET | BUY | 0.5099998317 | $1.00 |