aasdf
0x14fe3c89cabe70fba394f1d77704285449682a19
- Realised P&L
- $5.5k
- Volume
- $235.4k
- Markets traded
- 8
- Open portfolio
- $189.24
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.3%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- BlockerMarkets traded8
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration75.2% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample5 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? · Yes | 0.172 | 0.034 | $189.24 | −$782.94 |
| Iran leadership change by March 31? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$210.00 |
| Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 8 be between 60 and 70? · Yes | 0.024 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$24.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$13.1kat 0.465Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?
- +$4.2kat 0.766Will Assad remain President of Syria through 2024?
- +$156.00at 0.870Will Union win the most seats in the next German election?
- +$-711.34at 0.351Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?
- +$-10.3kat 0.205Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-16 21:32 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | SELL | 0.0636950911 | $1.1k |
| 01-15 22:10 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | SELL | 0.1 | $1.7k |
| 01-15 19:40 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | SELL | 0.09 | $3.0k |
| 01-12 23:23 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | BUY | 0.2 | $10.9k |
| 01-11 01:43 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | BUY | 0.23 | $920.00 |
| 01-09 00:47 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | BUY | 0.21 | $1.05 |
| 12-22 22:19 | Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April? | BUY | 0.4 | $200.00 |
| 12-08 00:28 | Will Assad remain President of Syria through 2024? | BUY | 0.8077066403 | $77.73 |
| 12-07 20:25 | Will Assad remain President of Syria through 2024? | BUY | 0.6977190083 | $168.85 |
| 12-07 19:05 | Will Assad remain President of Syria through 2024? | BUY | 0.7875757873 | $601.95 |
| 12-07 18:58 | Will Assad remain President of Syria through 2024? | BUY | 0.7620783156 | $276.16 |