Carlghnmgh
0x14f907897a0608456b6c4f572f7d6201aa8d77f3
- Realised P&L
- $0.96
- Volume
- $17.8k
- Markets traded
- 62
- Open portfolio
- $20.71
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded62
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration42.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)48.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Azerbaijan win on 2026-09-23? · Yes | 0.550 | 0.545 | $20.71 | −$0.19 |
| Will Warsh say "Inflation" 20+ times during July Press Conference? · No | 0.370 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$8.88 |
| Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-05-17? · Yes | 0.290 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$11.89 |
| Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-09-12? · No | 0.440 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$26.84 |
| Will Colombia win on 2026-07-03? · No | 0.320 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$23.68 |
| Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Lois Boisson · Lois Boisson | 0.390 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$22.85 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$477.12at 0.500Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals?
- +$463.14at 0.500Will Shelley Hughes win the 2026 Alaska governor election?
- +$86.97at 0.500Will Pierre Gasly be the 2025 Drivers Champion?
- +$74.40at 0.500Will the Athletics win the 2025 World Series?
- +$33.46at 0.442Counter-Strike: HOTU vs FOKUS (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 4: Closed Qualifier Playoffs
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-23 02:33 | Will Azerbaijan win on 2026-09-23? | BUY | 0.55 | $20.90 |
| 09-11 09:07 | Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? | SELL | 0.998 | $65.93 |
| 09-11 09:07 | Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-09-12? | BUY | 0.44 | $26.84 |
| 09-11 09:05 | Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? | BUY | 0.999 | $66.00 |
| 09-05 03:44 | Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | SELL | 0.998 | $56.94 |
| 09-05 03:44 | Counter-Strike: HOTU vs FOKUS (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 4: Closed Qualifier Playoffs | BUY | 0.43 | $25.80 |
| 09-05 03:42 | Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $32.00 |
| 09-05 03:42 | Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $25.00 |
| 08-12 12:21 | Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? | SELL | 0.992 | $41.96 |
| 08-12 12:21 | Will Páfos FC win on 2026-08-13? | BUY | 0.69 | $39.33 |
| 08-12 12:19 | Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? | BUY | 0.9929999999 | $17.00 |
| 08-12 12:18 | Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? | BUY | 0.9929999998 | $25.00 |
| 07-29 02:26 | Will Warsh say "Inflation" 20+ times during July Press Conference? | BUY | 0.37 | $8.88 |
| 07-23 05:49 | Will Demeke Mekonnen be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? | SELL | 0.997 | $42.95 |
| 07-23 05:48 | Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on July 23? | BUY | 0.72 | $31.68 |