dgdgdf
0x14f4d6ce36b6e210c1d28e5785636eda3b4b9eb5
- Realised P&L
- $-10.20
- Volume
- $10.1k
- Markets traded
- 115
- Open portfolio
- $19.38
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded115
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration5.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration54.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.24at 0.990Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31?
- +$0.17at 0.998Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 8?
- +$0.17at 0.998Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?
- +$0.16at 0.998Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on March 3?
- +$0.16at 0.998Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-09 14:20 | Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9969999998 | $10.60 |
| 10-09 14:16 | Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31? | BUY | 0.12 | $3.36 |
| 09-15 10:35 | Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.999 | $14.10 |
| 09-15 10:30 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.5169999735 | $1.58 |
| 08-20 13:52 | Will Google have the best AI model at the end of August 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $15.70 |
| 06-08 03:38 | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? | BUY | 0.999 | $87.00 |
| 06-04 09:02 | Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $87.00 |
| 06-01 02:43 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $87.00 |
| 05-29 07:12 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 29? | BUY | 0.999 | $83.00 |
| 05-24 11:24 | Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $83.70 |
| 05-19 07:16 | Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets in May 2026? | BUY | 0.998999989 | $83.00 |
| 05-15 02:57 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 15? | BUY | 0.999 | $83.00 |
| 05-13 01:19 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 13? | BUY | 0.999 | $83.00 |
| 05-09 06:15 | Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.998 | $83.00 |
| 05-06 09:06 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 6? | BUY | 0.998 | $83.00 |