cvvffomj4
0x14e2980ba9d8c5620135a85419c90a4fbd8c4f0d
- Realised P&L
- $-124.44
- Volume
- $58.7k
- Markets traded
- 109
- Open portfolio
- $36.27
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded109
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration28.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)94.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration85.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $96,000 October 12-18? · No | 0.998 | 0.999 | $30.82 | +$0.02 |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · No | 0.951 | 0.930 | $2.94 | −$0.06 |
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · No | 0.955 | 0.859 | $2.52 | −$0.28 |
| Spurs vs. Thunder · Thunder | 0.760 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Penguins vs. Predators · Penguins | 0.550 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$138.60 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.59at 0.001Will Jeanette Nunez be appointed as the next Florida senator?
- +$3.79at 0.001Will Casey DeSantis be appointed as the next Florida senator?
- +$2.40at 0.150Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by March 31?
- +$1.80at 0.001Will CeeDee Lamb win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season?
- +$1.76at 0.001Will Patrick Mahomes win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-15 10:48 | Will Bitcoin reach $96,000 October 12-18? | BUY | 0.998 | $30.80 |
| 10-14 00:56 | Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 on October 13? | BUY | 0.9899999772 | $30.00 |
| 10-10 23:57 | Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 on October 10? | BUY | 0.998 | $30.00 |
| 10-04 05:29 | Will Ethereum reach $2,900 September 28-October 4? | BUY | 0.992 | $30.00 |
| 08-18 08:12 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 18? | BUY | 0.9939999838 | $30.00 |
| 08-05 07:01 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on August 5? | BUY | 0.9099999781 | $29.50 |
| 07-30 08:50 | Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 July 27-August 2? | BUY | 0.9619999998 | $28.50 |
| 07-29 04:33 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 29? | BUY | 0.9929999998 | $27.00 |
| 07-29 04:33 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.996 | $15.98 |
| 07-28 01:22 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on July 28? | BUY | 0.9949999557 | $11.80 |
| 07-28 01:22 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.998 | $10.01 |
| 07-26 10:50 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.998 | $1.00 |
| 07-21 02:59 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.00 |
| 07-21 02:59 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.997 | $10.00 |
| 07-21 02:59 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.997 | $16.00 |