Friktes
0x14b2f9e5b0fa76d877e307aa82d296691d2dac16
- Realised P&L
- $257.22
- Volume
- $65.2k
- Markets traded
- 752
- Open portfolio
- $11.25
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded752
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration29.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)30.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration40.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Indiana use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.035 | $4.60 | −$23.40 |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.400 | 0.065 | $4.29 | −$22.11 |
| Will Michael Echols be the Republican nominee for LA-05? · Yes | 0.310 | 0.096 | $2.36 | −$5.26 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$155.28at 0.277Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?
- +$151.14at 0.179Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026?
- +$97.54at 0.309Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by 3-6%?
- +$96.76at 0.340US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?
- +$84.17at 0.117Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-14 13:40 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.38 | $26.60 |
| 06-11 10:22 | Will Tom Homan be arrested before 2027? | SELL | 0.1604503416 | $3.05 |
| 06-11 10:20 | Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.338 | $1.69 |
| 06-02 09:38 | Steve Bannon exonerated by June 30? | SELL | 0.3043515173 | $16.85 |
| 06-02 09:15 | Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a technocrat? | SELL | 0.42 | $12.27 |
| 06-02 09:14 | Will Jordan Bardella announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026? | SELL | 0.2123972488 | $12.66 |
| 06-02 09:13 | Will Trump speak to Keir Starmer in May? | SELL | 0.988 | $23.97 |
| 06-02 09:13 | Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in May? | SELL | 0.994 | $84.88 |
| 06-02 09:13 | Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in May? | SELL | 0.994 | $9.42 |
| 05-22 08:15 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET | BUY | 0.01 | $1.00 |
| 05-22 06:15 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET | BUY | 0.01 | $1.00 |
| 05-21 23:59 | Solana Up or Down - May 21, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET | BUY | 0.089999919 | $1.00 |
| 05-21 18:30 | Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET | BUY | 0.01 | $1.00 |
| 05-21 12:15 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET | BUY | 0.01 | $1.00 |
| 05-21 12:00 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7AM ET | BUY | 0.01 | $1.00 |