SERJKMD
0x14ab47a21d548da5989a28dccb70b9133a512f6e
- Realised P&L
- $-71.31
- Volume
- $20.7k
- Markets traded
- 249
- Open portfolio
- $40.63
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded249
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration25.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)84.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration55.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$24.00at 0.040Will the price of Ethereum be between $2400 and $2500 on June 24?
- +$10.76at 0.218Will the federal government be shut down for 30 or more days in 2025?
- +$6.75at 0.290Reya FDV above $150M one day after launch?
- +$6.14at 0.140Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84000 and $86000 on Apr 18?
- +$4.51at 0.310Will Ethereum dip to $3,000 in November?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12-18 21:54 | Reya FDV above $400M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.0491176471 | $0.35 |
| 12-18 21:53 | Reya FDV above $400M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.91 | $3.38 |
| 12-18 21:53 | Reya FDV above $150M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.485800464 | $16.75 |
| 12-18 21:51 | Reya FDV above $400M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.88 | $9.36 |
| 12-12 12:32 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | BUY | 0.9719999806 | $1.00 |
| 12-11 13:27 | Will Almanak FDV above $80M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.8799995072 | $1.00 |
| 12-10 22:39 | No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.8 | $1.00 |
| 12-10 18:44 | Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during December press conference? | BUY | 0.9509996453 | $1.00 |
| 12-10 17:34 | Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? | BUY | 0.003 | $1.00 |
| 12-09 19:59 | GPT ads by December 31? | BUY | 0.9479999924 | $1.00 |
| 12-09 19:59 | Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? | BUY | 0.9539999828 | $1.00 |
| 12-09 19:58 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | BUY | 0.91 | $1.00 |
| 12-08 23:12 | Tether insolvent in 2025? | BUY | 0.993 | $1.00 |
| 12-08 23:11 | Will edgeX launch a token in 2025? | BUY | 0.4699998778 | $1.00 |
| 12-08 23:11 | Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2025? | BUY | 0.9639999884 | $1.00 |