Jayshuai
0x14ab1d092789bd14074f849c5384fe2813f6a6fd
- Realised P&L
- $-7.6k
- Volume
- $111.0k
- Markets traded
- 22
- Open portfolio
- $162.29
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-6.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded22
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration25.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample16 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)81.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? · Yes | 0.401 | 0.065 | $162.29 | −$837.71 |
| Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in February? · Yes | 0.139 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$500.00 |
| US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? · No | 0.380 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$370.00 |
| Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30? · No | 0.022 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? · Yes | 0.073 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$499.99 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in February? · Yes | 0.052 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$999.98 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$690.64at 0.755Will CZ return to Binance by December 31?
- +$677.11at 0.820US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?
- +$604.94at 0.730Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?
- +$217.29at 0.910Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?
- +$162.35at 0.838Will no CEO be announced in 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02-27 19:11 | US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.8599999999 | $2.6k |
| 02-03 15:58 | US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.79 | $2.5k |
| 02-03 15:56 | Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in February? | BUY | 0.1391650097 | $500.00 |
| 02-03 15:53 | Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in February? | BUY | 0.0524679528 | $1000.00 |
| 02-03 15:52 | US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? | SELL | 0.985 | $4.0k |
| 01-27 23:33 | US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.3799999996 | $370.00 |
| 01-27 20:43 | US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.82 | $3.4k |
| 01-27 20:40 | Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.89 | $3.4k |
| 01-24 17:48 | Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7299999999 | $2.8k |
| 01-24 17:40 | US government shutdown Saturday? | SELL | 0.7052023746 | $2.8k |
| 01-22 11:22 | US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.6249350971 | $1.0k |
| 01-22 11:20 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.57 | $1000.00 |
| 12-17 18:24 | Xi Jinping out before 2027? | SELL | 0.88 | $1.8k |
| 12-16 06:01 | Will Trump meet with Changpeng Zhao in 2025? | SELL | 0.9651201674 | $281.34 |
| 12-16 06:00 | Will CZ return to Binance by December 31? | SELL | 0.9610232411 | $3.2k |