0x1489d6bd34767d10d65e290e63c6aa77ff138310
0x1489d6bd34767d10d65e290e63c6aa77ff138310
- Realised P&L
- $-9.34
- Volume
- $251.06
- Markets traded
- 80
- Open portfolio
- $2.07
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded80
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration8.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)58.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration54.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 21? · Up | 0.660 | 0.745 | $1.13 | +$0.13 |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026? · No | 0.750 | 0.705 | $0.94 | −$0.06 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.65at 0.361Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?
- +$2.29at 0.472Will annual inflation be 3.4% in July?
- +$1.84at 0.520Will Trump say "Melania" during White House Correspondents Dinner?
- +$1.50at 0.500Will Trump say "Nobody Like Him" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?
- +$1.42at 0.589Will Brazil's Q2 2026 GDP growth rate (QoQ) be between 0.3% and 0.5%?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-21 09:54 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 21? | BUY | 0.6599997888 | $1.00 |
| 10-20 21:53 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.75 | $1.00 |
| 10-19 01:53 | Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026? | BUY | 0.6699999196 | $1.00 |
| 10-18 17:53 | Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q3 da Vinci procedure growth 12.5% to 15%? | BUY | 0.5199999792 | $1.00 |
| 10-14 20:34 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026? | BUY | 0.6299998362 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 10:55 | Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in September? | BUY | 0.64 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 02:44 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 9? | BUY | 0.74 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 05:46 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.2399999808 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 21:45 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.74 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 10:12 | Will ISM Services PMI be between 55.0 and 55.9 in September? | BUY | 0.7 | $1.00 |
| 09-30 02:05 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 28 to September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.5399999568 | $1.00 |
| 09-25 01:10 | Will GitHub's longest critical incident in September 2026 be between 6 and 12 hours? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |
| 09-24 15:31 | Will Costco say "Dividend" during earnings call? | BUY | 0.59999988 | $1.00 |
| 09-24 07:08 | Will Trump say "China" 5+ times during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival? | BUY | 0.4899998383 | $1.00 |
| 09-23 22:35 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026? | BUY | 0.7699995842 | $1.00 |