0x146d2e9715bd5a83cae2b4b8ec1652a662e96b03
- Realised P&L
- not known
- Volume
- not known
- Markets traded
- 18
- Open portfolio
- $518.51
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- Not knownEdge per dollar—
- No leaderboard entry for this wallet in the requested window.
- BlockerMarkets traded18
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration43.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample18 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)61.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand decrease the official cash rate by 25 bps at the March meeting? · Yes | 0.162 | 0.165 | $518.51 | +$8.79 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$46.12at 0.196Will A Derailment win Best Documentary Short Film at the 99th Academy Awards?
- +$10.63at 0.114Mary Peltola charged by January 31?
- +$9.87at 0.370Will MiniMax have the best Image-to-Video AI at the end of November 2026?
- +$7.81at 0.368Will Miley Cyrus appear at the 2027 Big Game halftime show?
- +$7.31at 0.291Will Steve Hilton win Fresno County in the California governor race in 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-02 02:54 | Will "Dune: Part Three" be nominated for Best Sound at the 99th Academy Awards? | SELL | 0.14 | $0.70 |
| 11-02 02:54 | Will "Dune: Part Three" be nominated for Best Sound at the 99th Academy Awards? | SELL | 0.14 | $2.10 |
| 11-02 02:54 | Will "Dune: Part Three" be nominated for Best Sound at the 99th Academy Awards? | SELL | 0.1689285553 | $74.67 |
| 11-02 01:37 | Will "Dune: Part Three" be nominated for Best Sound at the 99th Academy Awards? | SELL | 0.17 | $18.69 |
| 11-02 01:36 | Will "Dune: Part Three" be nominated for Best Sound at the 99th Academy Awards? | BUY | 0.22 | $3.52 |
| 11-02 01:35 | Will "Dune: Part Three" be nominated for Best Sound at the 99th Academy Awards? | BUY | 0.17 | $18.70 |
| 11-02 01:35 | Will "Dune: Part Three" be nominated for Best Sound at the 99th Academy Awards? | BUY | 0.16 | $7.99 |
| 11-02 01:35 | Will "Dune: Part Three" be nominated for Best Sound at the 99th Academy Awards? | BUY | 0.14 | $50.55 |
| 11-02 01:32 | Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand decrease the official cash rate by 25 bps at the March meeting? | SELL | 0.16 | $3.20 |
| 11-01 23:48 | Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand decrease the official cash rate by 25 bps at the March meeting? | BUY | 0.15 | $1.00 |
| 11-01 23:48 | Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand decrease the official cash rate by 25 bps at the March meeting? | BUY | 0.14 | $2.80 |
| 11-01 23:46 | Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand decrease the official cash rate by 25 bps at the March meeting? | BUY | 0.13 | $1.30 |
| 11-01 23:46 | Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand decrease the official cash rate by 25 bps at the March meeting? | BUY | 0.13 | $1.30 |
| 11-01 23:46 | Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand decrease the official cash rate by 25 bps at the March meeting? | BUY | 0.1 | $10.10 |
| 11-01 22:37 | Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand decrease the official cash rate by 25 bps at the March meeting? | BUY | 0.12 | $3.60 |