-b.d-
0x1454d8d4728674b593562c3e7d24c7b5e1180d09
- Realised P&L
- $-106.86
- Volume
- $68.7k
- Markets traded
- 45
- Open portfolio
- $1.19
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded45
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration17.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample43 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)34.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will White House post 180-199 posts from October 6 to October 13, 2026? · Yes | 0.120 | 0.029 | $1.19 | −$3.73 |
| Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? · Yes | 0.208 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$22.75 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$137.14at 0.106Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 28 to September 4, 2026?
- +$128.29at 0.422Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 1 to September 8, 2026?
- +$97.57at 0.406Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?
- +$92.68at 0.021Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 25 to September 1, 2026?
- +$85.95at 0.008Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-08 17:41 | Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.2298583733 | $16.23 |
| 10-08 16:30 | Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.1676140983 | $6.52 |
| 10-08 16:30 | Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | SELL | 0.0160103546 | $7.50 |
| 10-08 14:02 | Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.0579999981 | $1.54 |
| 10-08 07:31 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.66 |
| 10-08 06:32 | Will White House post 160-179 posts from October 6 to October 13, 2026? | SELL | 0.011 | $0.22 |
| 10-08 05:14 | Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.171802351 | $75.91 |
| 10-08 05:12 | Will White House post 180-199 posts from October 6 to October 13, 2026? | SELL | 0.21 | $12.39 |
| 10-07 15:33 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.19 | $84.46 |
| 10-07 15:22 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | SELL | 0.2 | $129.15 |
| 10-07 08:45 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | SELL | 0.25 | $75.00 |
| 10-07 07:13 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.2199999994 | $21.50 |
| 10-07 06:51 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.24 | $97.05 |
| 10-07 06:45 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | SELL | 0.1200806731 | $13.84 |
| 10-07 06:10 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | SELL | 0.2384379283 | $27.48 |