0x143e6a63c8d25166dadd3b494bc9e5b30c7da603
- Realised P&L
- $-61.89
- Volume
- $757.51
- Markets traded
- 17
- Open portfolio
- $0.01
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-8.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded17
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration66.4% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample7 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)28.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party win the NY-15 House seat? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.004 | $0.01 | −$0.61 |
| Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during April press conference? · Yes | 0.085 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.58 |
| Will Mansoor Delane be drafted 7th overall in the 2026 pro football draft? · Yes | 0.110 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.25 |
| Will Cameron Young finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 RBC Heritage? · Yes | 0.189 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$15.76 |
| Will Meta (META) close above $680 on April 21? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.20 |
| Ethereum above 2,310 on April 19, 2PM ET? · Yes | 0.287 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.67 |
| Will Leavitt say "Joe Biden" during the next White House press briefing? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$15.39 |
| Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 82°F or higher on April 23? · Yes | 0.573 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$15.75 |
| Will Databricks’ market cap be less than $100B at market close on IPO day? · Yes | 0.051 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.09 |
| Will LeBron James play for the San Antonio Spurs in 2026-27? · Yes | 0.289 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$13.11 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$14.20at 0.500Will Kevin Warsh say "Constitution" during Nomination Hearing?
- +$7.19at 0.290Pharos FDV above $1B one day after launch?
- +$-0.05at 0.420Will Drake officially release Iceman by April 30, 2026?
- +$-0.26at 0.540Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?
- +$-1.98at 0.399Will SpaceX have less than or equal to 11 launches in April?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-04 07:50 | Will the Republican Party win the NY-15 House seat? | SELL | 0.048 | $0.68 |
| 05-04 07:49 | Will the Republican Party win the NY-15 House seat? | BUY | 0.2099999557 | $3.60 |
| 04-29 19:02 | Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during April press conference? | BUY | 0.0853315694 | $2.58 |
| 04-29 02:12 | Will Databricks’ market cap be less than $100B at market close on IPO day? | BUY | 0.0510774485 | $3.09 |
| 04-26 09:59 | Will SpaceX have less than or equal to 11 launches in April? | SELL | 0.102 | $0.08 |
| 04-24 06:13 | Pharos FDV above $1B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.4755128205 | $20.40 |
| 04-24 02:12 | Will Leavitt say "Joe Biden" during the next White House press briefing? | BUY | 0.4499999921 | $13.54 |
| 04-23 17:09 | Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on April 24? | SELL | 0.002 | $0.00 |
| 04-22 04:28 | Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on April 24? | BUY | 0.2449295775 | $6.43 |
| 04-20 21:43 | Will SpaceX have less than or equal to 11 launches in April? | BUY | 0.399 | $6.14 |
| 04-19 19:09 | Will MrBeast's next video get less than 46 million views on day 2? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.03 |
| 04-19 17:54 | Ethereum above 2,310 on April 19, 2PM ET? | BUY | 0.06 | $0.91 |
| 04-19 17:50 | Will MrBeast's next video get less than 46 million views on day 2? | BUY | 0.05 | $1.28 |
| 04-19 17:25 | Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI? | SELL | 0.53 | $13.66 |
| 04-19 17:18 | Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.54 | $13.92 |