disdatderedem
0x14050ed76c1a3bec25cb97cc623ceb3899d79db0
- Realised P&L
- $17.7k
- Volume
- $404.7k
- Markets traded
- 36
- Open portfolio
- $170.3k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar4.4%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded36
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration79.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample28 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)67.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration52.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · No | 0.500 | 0.894 | $89.5k | +$39.5k |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? · No | 0.949 | 0.974 | $29.2k | +$726.95 |
| Will Ethereum dip to $500 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.935 | 0.983 | $12.5k | +$605.73 |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.105 | $10.6k | −$39.5k |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.795 | 0.945 | $10.0k | +$1.6k |
| Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.858 | 0.962 | $9.6k | +$1.0k |
| Will Ethereum dip to $700 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.953 | 0.977 | $4.0k | +$96.42 |
| AI bubble burst in 2026? · No | 0.695 | 0.864 | $1.9k | +$380.93 |
| Will Ethereum reach $4,500 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.915 | 0.915 | $1.8k | +$0.00 |
| Will Ethereum reach $5,000 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.930 | 0.947 | $947.00 | +$17.00 |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,250 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.910 | 0.915 | $298.73 | +$1.63 |
| Will Ethereum dip to $600 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.931 | 0.980 | $84.96 | +$4.21 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.5kat 0.404Ethereum flipped in 2026?
- +$630.02at 0.893Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
- +$288.83at 0.954Will GPT-6 be released by July 31, 2026?
- +$210.00at 0.953Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?
- +$164.79at 0.984Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-05 13:25 | Will Ethereum dip to $500 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9817637375 | $3.9k |
| 08-22 01:13 | Will Ethereum dip to $700 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.985 | $77.13 |
| 08-22 01:13 | Will Ethereum dip to $700 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9647446169 | $647.86 |
| 08-22 01:13 | Will Ethereum dip to $700 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.963 | $96.30 |
| 08-17 19:34 | Will Ethereum dip to $700 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.96 | $1.1k |
| 08-17 19:34 | Will Ethereum dip to $700 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9587777778 | $862.90 |
| 08-13 09:28 | Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.93 | $425.23 |
| 07-20 20:29 | Will Ethereum dip to $600 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.931 | $80.75 |
| 07-09 01:06 | Will GPT-6 be released by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.962 | $14.43 |
| 07-09 01:06 | Will GPT-6 be released by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.961 | $94.09 |
| 07-08 17:32 | Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.51 | $2.2k |
| 07-08 00:27 | Will GPT-6 be released by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.969 | $1.2k |
| 07-07 09:23 | Will GPT-6 be released by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.986 | $7.06 |
| 07-01 04:08 | Will Ethereum dip to $500 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.972 | $291.60 |
| 07-01 04:07 | Will Ethereum dip to $500 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.912 | $273.60 |