Lukamcrn
0x14016dcf3f69f626f92f15a33a167961861c2bc2
- Realised P&L
- $-9.76
- Volume
- $3.8k
- Markets traded
- 12
- Open portfolio
- $177.58
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded12
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration36.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample4 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration36.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.111 | 0.360 | $64.95 | +$44.95 |
| Will Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.285 | 0.890 | $62.38 | +$42.38 |
| Will Dominique de Villepin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.502 | 0.325 | $32.38 | −$17.62 |
| Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.050 | 0.009 | $17.86 | −$87.14 |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.198 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$75.00 |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.359 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? · Yes | 0.353 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$81.69 |
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? · No | 0.270 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$25.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$75.24at 0.210Will the Emmanuel Grégoire List win the most citywide list votes in the runoff of the 2026 Paris municipal election by 5–10%?
- +$74.31at 0.587Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?
- +$56.09at 0.620US forces enter Iran by April 30?
- +$2.40at 0.540Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-15 20:53 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.3589999911 | $20.00 |
| 07-07 12:43 | Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.1109999952 | $20.00 |
| 07-07 12:43 | Will Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.2853324762 | $20.00 |
| 06-23 11:42 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1979999983 | $75.00 |
| 05-29 10:16 | Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? | BUY | 0.5799999993 | $104.44 |
| 05-05 09:39 | Will Dominique de Villepin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.5017926744 | $50.00 |
| 04-05 10:50 | Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.0493665371 | $100.00 |
| 04-05 10:46 | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | SELL | 0.998 | $148.08 |
| 03-31 11:46 | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | BUY | 0.6199999939 | $92.00 |
| 03-31 11:45 | US forces enter Iran by December 31? | BUY | 0.2699999938 | $25.00 |
| 03-19 11:52 | Will the Emmanuel Grégoire List win the most citywide list votes in the runoff of the 2026 Paris municipal election by 5–10%? | BUY | 0.2099999922 | $20.00 |
| 03-14 12:25 | Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | BUY | 0.36 | $72.00 |
| 03-13 18:48 | Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | SELL | 0.3 | $0.30 |
| 03-13 18:01 | Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | BUY | 0.3099999836 | $10.00 |
| 03-04 12:39 | Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.0665249994 | $5.00 |