PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

Lukamcrn

0x14016dcf3f69f626f92f15a33a167961861c2bc2

Realised P&L
$-9.76
Volume
$3.8k
Markets traded
12
Open portfolio
$177.58

Can you copy this trader?

unrealisticMultiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
BlockerMarkets traded12
Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
CautionProfit concentration36.2% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
CautionSettled sample4 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration36.6% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes0.1110.360$64.95+$44.95
Will Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes0.2850.890$62.38+$42.38
Will Dominique de Villepin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes0.5020.325$32.38$17.62
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes0.0500.009$17.86$87.14
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes0.1980.000$0.00$75.00
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes0.3590.000$0.00$20.00
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? · Yes0.3530.000$0.00$81.69
US forces enter Iran by December 31? · No0.2700.000$0.00$25.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
07-15 20:53Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.3589999911$20.00
07-07 12:43Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?BUY0.1109999952$20.00
07-07 12:43Will Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?BUY0.2853324762$20.00
06-23 11:42Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.1979999983$75.00
05-29 10:16Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?BUY0.5799999993$104.44
05-05 09:39Will Dominique de Villepin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?BUY0.5017926744$50.00
04-05 10:50Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election?BUY0.0493665371$100.00
04-05 10:46US forces enter Iran by April 30?SELL0.998$148.08
03-31 11:46US forces enter Iran by April 30?BUY0.6199999939$92.00
03-31 11:45US forces enter Iran by December 31?BUY0.2699999938$25.00
03-19 11:52Will the Emmanuel Grégoire List win the most citywide list votes in the runoff of the 2026 Paris municipal election by 5–10%?BUY0.2099999922$20.00
03-14 12:25Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?BUY0.36$72.00
03-13 18:48Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?SELL0.3$0.30
03-13 18:01Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?BUY0.3099999836$10.00
03-04 12:39Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election?BUY0.0665249994$5.00