0x13ebf130fcdd1985ff6f45aee31b801fdfedc78c
- Realised P&L
- not known
- Volume
- not known
- Markets traded
- 24
- Open portfolio
- $28.12
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- Not knownEdge per dollar—
- No leaderboard entry for this wallet in the requested window.
- ClearMarkets traded24
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration34.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample16 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)87.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration46.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? · No | 0.959 | 0.968 | $13.12 | +$0.12 |
| Will Argentina make Peter Thiel a citizen by December 31? · No | 0.930 | 0.900 | $11.61 | −$0.39 |
| Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? · Yes | 0.420 | 0.285 | $3.39 | −$1.61 |
| Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on March 10? · Up | 0.840 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.00 |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 10? · Up | 0.910 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on March 9? · Down | 0.677 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on March 7? · No | 0.001 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Costco (COST) beat quarterly earnings? · No | 0.070 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.33at 0.567S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 4?
- +$4.89at 0.665Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $175 on March 9?
- +$3.38at 0.823Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on March 6?
- +$1.84at 0.900S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 5?
- +$0.96at 0.870S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 9?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-27 23:25 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? | SELL | 0.947 | $13.69 |
| 10-09 19:38 | Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? | BUY | 0.9779998924 | $2.00 |
| 10-09 19:38 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.1 | $1.56 |
| 10-05 20:44 | Will Argentina make Peter Thiel a citizen by December 31? | BUY | 0.9299999953 | $10.00 |
| 10-05 20:44 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? | SELL | 0.93 | $10.10 |
| 08-21 19:29 | Will Argentina make Peter Thiel a citizen by December 31? | BUY | 0.9299999814 | $2.00 |
| 08-21 16:15 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 21? | SELL | 0.03 | $1.67 |
| 08-21 15:54 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 21? | BUY | 0.0179999825 | $1.00 |
| 08-21 15:52 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? | BUY | 0.8989999433 | $10.00 |
| 08-21 15:52 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? | BUY | 0.919999919 | $10.00 |
| 08-21 15:50 | Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? | BUY | 0.956 | $10.00 |
| 08-18 20:34 | Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? | BUY | 0.9549999952 | $1.00 |
| 08-18 19:21 | Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on August 18? | SELL | 0.99 | $1.32 |
| 08-18 17:43 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? | BUY | 0.8969998326 | $3.00 |
| 08-18 17:22 | Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on August 18? | BUY | 0.75 | $1.00 |