aerien
0x13afa705c442cfea87d03ba3e87be5219e503715
- Realised P&L
- $-110.94
- Volume
- $19.3k
- Markets traded
- 38
- Open portfolio
- $601.88
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded38
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration39.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample17 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)76.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration35.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$262.20at 0.310Zama FDV above $500M one day after launch?
- +$79.20at 0.820EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?
- +$71.33at 0.290Base FDV above $4B one day after launch?
- +$63.00at 0.600Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch?
- +$60.00at 0.600Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-24 11:44 | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.68 | $149.60 |
| 10-07 22:55 | Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.65 | $65.00 |
| 06-02 22:38 | Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.33 | $66.00 |
| 04-13 20:33 | Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.879 | $26.37 |
| 03-17 09:34 | Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.81 | $242.99 |
| 03-11 11:52 | Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.61 | $122.00 |
| 03-06 20:43 | Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.6 | $90.00 |
| 03-06 00:52 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET | BUY | 0.3 | $2.93 |
| 03-06 00:26 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET | BUY | 0.2296761862 | $8.38 |
| 03-05 23:33 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET | BUY | 0.0090000002 | $0.90 |
| 03-05 22:04 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET | SELL | 0.24 | $11.88 |
| 03-05 21:57 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET | BUY | 0.1397576122 | $6.94 |
| 03-05 21:52 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET | BUY | 0.03 | $3.00 |
| 03-05 21:52 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET | BUY | 0.1099609983 | $5.47 |
| 03-05 14:13 | Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.58 | $69.81 |