PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

aerien

0x13afa705c442cfea87d03ba3e87be5219e503715

Realised P&L
$-110.94
Volume
$19.3k
Markets traded
38
Open portfolio
$601.88

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded38
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration39.4% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
CautionSettled sample17 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)76.5%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration35.7% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Unit FDV above $200M one day after launch? · Yes0.6000.430$215.00−$85.00
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes0.6800.715$157.30+$7.70
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? · Yes0.6070.555$147.07−$13.82
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? · No0.5800.825$82.50+$24.50
Over 150,000 bidders in the MegaETH public sale? · Yes0.3140.000$0.00−$30.00
Flying Tulip FDV above $1B one day after launch? · No0.6000.000$0.00−$120.00
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET · Down0.1560.000$0.00−$4.52
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET · Up0.0350.000$0.00−$4.58
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET · Up0.0570.000$0.00−$8.50
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? · No0.4000.000$0.00−$120.00
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET · Up0.0090.000$0.00−$0.90
Genius FDV above $300M one day after launch? · No0.8400.000$0.00−$168.00
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET · Up0.2500.000$0.00−$7.50
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET · Down0.1400.000$0.00−$6.99
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? · Yes0.0020.000$0.00−$24.99

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-24 11:44Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?BUY0.68$149.60
10-07 22:55Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?BUY0.65$65.00
06-02 22:38Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch?SELL0.33$66.00
04-13 20:33Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch?BUY0.879$26.37
03-17 09:34Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch?SELL0.81$242.99
03-11 11:52Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch?BUY0.61$122.00
03-06 20:43Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch?BUY0.6$90.00
03-06 00:52Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 7:50PM-7:55PM ETBUY0.3$2.93
03-06 00:26Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 7:25PM-7:30PM ETBUY0.2296761862$8.38
03-05 23:33Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 6:30PM-6:35PM ETBUY0.0090000002$0.90
03-05 22:04Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 5:00PM-5:05PM ETSELL0.24$11.88
03-05 21:57Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 4:55PM-5:00PM ETBUY0.1397576122$6.94
03-05 21:52Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 4:50PM-4:55PM ETBUY0.03$3.00
03-05 21:52Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 4:50PM-4:55PM ETBUY0.1099609983$5.47
03-05 14:13Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch?SELL0.58$69.81