a5ym3tr1cvalue
0x1399c0b42c739b50a644eb959e42f4e0750b90b0
- Realised P&L
- $160.74
- Volume
- $4.1k
- Markets traded
- 10
- Open portfolio
- $114.09
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.9%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded10
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration50.1% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample7 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Micron say "Nvidia" during earnings call? · Yes | 0.670 | 0.780 | $114.09 | +$16.09 |
| Will the Green Party win the second-most council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections? · Yes | 0.530 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.041 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$75.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$129.50at 0.885Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
- +$100.25at 0.769Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
- +$27.47at 0.560Will there be between 0 and 5 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on September 30?
- +$0.50at 0.995No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?
- +$0.30at 0.997Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-29 20:58 | Will Micron say "Nvidia" during earnings call? | BUY | 0.67 | $70.35 |
| 09-29 20:11 | Will there be between 0 and 5 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on September 30? | SELL | 0.964 | $39.03 |
| 09-28 22:07 | Will there be between 0 and 5 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on September 30? | BUY | 0.56 | $5.60 |
| 09-14 20:25 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.8799999999 | $993.33 |
| 07-24 17:31 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.76 | $330.00 |
| 06-17 15:16 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.9979999955 | $80.00 |
| 06-10 13:03 | Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0409999995 | $75.00 |
| 05-07 13:00 | Will the Green Party win the second-most council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections? | BUY | 0.5299999883 | $20.00 |
| 04-29 11:37 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.999 | $100.79 |
| 03-18 13:41 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.997 | $100.50 |
| 01-27 22:10 | No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.995 | $100.00 |