0x138525dd9a8be9fa45cbb7a57f16f359bf93e96a
0x138525dd9a8be9fa45cbb7a57f16f359bf93e96a
- Realised P&L
- $100.14
- Volume
- $101.3k
- Markets traded
- 1,461
- Open portfolio
- $3.31
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,461
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- CautionProfit concentration31.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration91.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C on October 3? · Yes | 0.120 | 0.090 | $3.02 | −$1.01 |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on October 3? · Yes | 0.065 | 0.019 | $0.29 | −$0.71 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$134.39at 0.459Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 74°F or higher on April 12?
- +$110.40at 0.192Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on March 24?
- +$99.10at 0.032Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 56-57°F on March 28?
- +$91.35at 0.041Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on April 12?
- +$88.31at 0.181Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on July 19?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-03 03:25 | Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C on October 3? | BUY | 0.12 | $0.62 |
| 10-02 13:48 | Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on October 2? | SELL | 0.005 | $0.06 |
| 10-02 13:29 | Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on October 2? | BUY | 0.97 | $0.07 |
| 10-02 11:48 | Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on October 2? | BUY | 0.074 | $0.96 |
| 10-02 11:21 | Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on October 2? | BUY | 0.958 | $4.90 |
| 10-02 04:01 | Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on October 2? | SELL | 0.4 | $4.29 |
| 10-02 04:01 | Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on October 2? | SELL | 0.73 | $4.77 |
| 10-02 03:56 | Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on October 2? | BUY | 0.46 | $4.94 |
| 10-01 12:34 | Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on October 1? | SELL | 0.011 | $0.07 |
| 10-01 12:33 | Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on October 1? | BUY | 0.97 | $4.91 |
| 10-01 11:27 | Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on October 1? | SELL | 0.3589445438 | $2.01 |
| 10-01 11:26 | Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on October 1? | SELL | 0.16 | $4.27 |
| 10-01 02:59 | Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on October 1? | BUY | 0.28 | $1.57 |
| 09-30 21:13 | Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on September 30? | SELL | 0.997 | $21.14 |
| 09-30 20:08 | Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on September 30? | SELL | 0.995 | $10.10 |