lufios
0x135ceac86c6970205eaae28db6f79d47944fd946
- Realised P&L
- $-48.56
- Volume
- $2.4k
- Markets traded
- 54
- Open portfolio
- $27.20
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded54
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration21.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)54.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on October 12? · Yes | 0.908 | 1.000 | $27.20 | +$2.49 |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on October 7? · Yes | 0.050 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.13 |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on September 30? · Yes | 0.310 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.50 |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on October 12? · Yes | 0.052 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.22 |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on October 12? · Yes | 0.015 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.56 |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on October 6? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.70 |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on October 7? · Yes | 0.179 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.07 |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on October 3? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.11 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$25.94at 0.371Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on September 20?
- +$16.31at 0.584Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on September 19?
- +$14.14at 0.603Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on September 19?
- +$10.58at 0.782Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on September 25?
- +$7.65at 0.656Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on September 26?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-12 14:00 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on October 12? | BUY | 0.9221717124 | $17.67 |
| 10-12 13:45 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on October 12? | BUY | 0.8737940646 | $7.04 |
| 10-12 12:01 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on October 12? | BUY | 0.9389999961 | $14.11 |
| 10-11 21:15 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on October 12? | BUY | 0.0522452 | $5.22 |
| 10-11 21:15 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on October 12? | BUY | 0.0156 | $1.56 |
| 10-11 14:37 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on October 11? | BUY | 0.9419999784 | $17.92 |
| 10-11 12:01 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on October 11? | BUY | 0.9499998703 | $4.76 |
| 10-10 14:00 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on October 10? | BUY | 0.93 | $17.86 |
| 10-10 13:51 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on October 10? | BUY | 0.9 | $7.20 |
| 10-10 13:45 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on October 10? | SELL | 0.1172859745 | $3.22 |
| 10-10 13:45 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on October 10? | SELL | 0.1256721497 | $4.43 |
| 10-10 13:21 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on October 10? | BUY | 0.2424073793 | $11.50 |
| 10-10 13:21 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on October 10? | BUY | 0.2233595285 | $3.41 |
| 10-10 12:45 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on October 10? | SELL | 0.49 | $1.25 |
| 10-10 12:45 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on October 10? | SELL | 0.511087344 | $11.47 |