10193
0x13260e86c34b2856a5ffe47ea31135cbab55d13d
- Realised P&L
- $-1.2k
- Volume
- $97.4k
- Markets traded
- 99
- Open portfolio
- $619.39
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded99
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration24.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)32.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration52.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Felix Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.258 | 0.884 | $327.26 | +$231.81 |
| New England Revolution vs. Houston Dynamo: O/U 3.5 · Over | 0.210 | 0.325 | $198.25 | +$70.15 |
| Will the Toronto Blue Jays win more than 84.5 games in the 2026 MLB Regular Season? · O 84.5 | 0.160 | 0.094 | $94.38 | −$66.26 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$551.25at 0.604Portsmouth FC vs. Ipswich Town FC: O/U 2.5
- +$368.46at 0.540Will Hong Kong have 190mm or more of precipitation in April?
- +$286.74at 0.780Will Seattle have less than 3 inches of precipitation in January?
- +$286.11at 0.243Another S&P 500 Company buys Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?
- +$228.83at 0.510Will Trump post "Autopen" or "Auto pen" on Truth Social this week? (March 8)
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-23 08:30 | Will Hong Kong have 190mm or more of precipitation in April? | BUY | 0.54 | $432.54 |
| 04-11 18:00 | Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 70 seats? | SELL | 0.42 | $144.48 |
| 04-11 17:59 | Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 70 seats? | SELL | 0.42 | $128.10 |
| 04-11 11:00 | Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 70 seats? | BUY | 0.45 | $292.05 |
| 04-09 22:28 | Will there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30? | SELL | 0.69 | $201.48 |
| 04-09 22:27 | Will there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30? | SELL | 0.69 | $323.61 |
| 04-09 14:57 | Military action against Iran ends by April 28, 2026? | SELL | 0.06 | $6.42 |
| 04-09 13:51 | QFEX FDV above $50M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.31 | $56.42 |
| 04-09 13:50 | QFEX FDV above $50M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.31 | $116.56 |
| 04-08 07:27 | Military action against Iran ends by April 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.69 | $73.83 |
| 04-07 16:02 | Will Felix Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.258 | $95.46 |
| 04-07 10:09 | Will there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30? | BUY | 0.78 | $593.58 |
| 03-31 03:56 | Rihanna confirmed pregnant in 2026? | SELL | 0.35 | $60.90 |
| 03-30 15:51 | Will Homelander die in "The Boys: Season 5"? | SELL | 0.15 | $8.40 |
| 03-30 15:49 | Will Homelander die in "The Boys: Season 5"? | SELL | 0.15 | $100.35 |