sleepysamoed
0x131bece5f5055965c1ae8499a878efbd0b201ede
- Realised P&L
- $-2.10
- Volume
- $1.8k
- Markets traded
- 22
- Open portfolio
- $134.75
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded22
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration33.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample18 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)77.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration36.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · No | 0.979 | 0.968 | $49.09 | −$0.58 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the CA-06 House seat? · Yes | 0.947 | 0.950 | $46.80 | +$0.12 |
| Will Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 National League Championship Series? · No | 0.953 | 0.748 | $32.14 | −$8.84 |
| Will the Republican Party win the OH-03 House seat? · No | 0.977 | 0.980 | $6.72 | +$0.02 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.37at 0.950Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,200 by end of June?
- +$0.74at 0.970Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
- +$0.72at 0.974Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31?
- +$0.58at 0.960Will Venezuela become 51st state?
- +$0.57at 0.979Claudio Tapia out as AFA President by July 19, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-08 08:07 | Will Our Homeland Movement (Mi Hazánk) finish with the third-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.975 | $21.67 |