PedroFl
0x131ae0dfd57fd09827448bb839ddea380aa3c50f
- Realised P&L
- $199.30
- Volume
- $329.78
- Markets traded
- 12
- Open portfolio
- $61.55
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar60.4%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded12
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration99.5% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample6 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)83.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration39.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in October? · Yes | 0.290 | 0.395 | $24.52 | +$6.52 |
| Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.1M and 7.2M in September? · Yes | 0.182 | 0.240 | $11.90 | +$2.90 |
| Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.3M and 7.4M in September? · Yes | 0.314 | 0.250 | $9.56 | −$2.44 |
| Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 55.0 and 55.9 in October? · Yes | 0.200 | 0.185 | $5.55 | −$0.45 |
| Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in October? · Yes | 0.200 | 0.175 | $5.25 | −$0.75 |
| Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.2M and 7.3M in September? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.090 | $4.76 | −$4.24 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$198.40at 0.206Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- +$0.52at 0.050US forces in Venezuela by December 31?
- +$0.29at 0.123Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- +$0.05at 0.210Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?
- +$0.04at 0.500Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $100k first?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 16:29 | Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.3M and 7.4M in September? | BUY | 0.3138461466 | $12.00 |
| 11-01 16:28 | Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.2M and 7.3M in September? | BUY | 0.1699999983 | $9.00 |
| 11-01 16:27 | Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.1M and 7.2M in September? | BUY | 0.1818235961 | $9.00 |
| 10-31 21:30 | Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in October? | BUY | 0.2899999977 | $18.00 |
| 10-31 21:29 | Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 55.0 and 55.9 in October? | BUY | 0.2 | $6.00 |
| 10-31 21:29 | Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in October? | BUY | 0.2 | $6.00 |
| 10-18 15:16 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.2 | $50.00 |
| 12-24 13:12 | Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $100k first? | SELL | 0.52 | $1.04 |
| 12-21 14:54 | Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $100k first? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.00 |
| 12-18 00:05 | US forces in Venezuela by December 31? | SELL | 0.076 | $1.52 |
| 12-17 20:18 | Maduro out by January 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.2 | $1.00 |
| 12-17 20:18 | Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | SELL | 0.22 | $1.05 |
| 12-17 13:12 | Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | BUY | 0.2099998677 | $1.00 |
| 12-16 15:14 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.159 | $1.29 |
| 12-14 15:19 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.1229998967 | $1.00 |