0x130a15d1d0dad29b54c11a5890373bd8c16eb35b
0x130a15d1d0dad29b54c11a5890373bd8c16eb35b
- Realised P&L
- $-4.98
- Volume
- $320.36
- Markets traded
- 74
- Open portfolio
- $2.08
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded74
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration13.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration68.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on October 12? · Up | 0.680 | 0.974 | $1.43 | +$0.43 |
| Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $790 Week of October 12 2026? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.175 | $0.65 | −$0.35 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.26at 0.249Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026?
- +$5.92at 0.259Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the September decision?
- +$5.89at 0.260Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?
- +$5.69at 0.260US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?
- +$3.20at 0.392Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-12 10:49 | Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $790 Week of October 12 2026? | BUY | 0.2699999784 | $1.00 |
| 10-12 10:49 | Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on October 12? | BUY | 0.6799998912 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 13:49 | Will OpenRouter process between 155T and 165T tokens the week of October 5? | BUY | 0.7199999424 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 15:21 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.7299994744 | $1.00 |
| 09-25 01:41 | Will GitHub's longest critical incident in September 2026 be between 6 and 12 hours? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |
| 09-24 11:46 | Will Trump say "Ballroom" during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival? | BUY | 0.7599999088 | $1.00 |
| 09-18 13:47 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.2599999896 | $2.00 |
| 09-16 05:04 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.219999978 | $2.00 |
| 09-15 20:28 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $2.00 |
| 09-13 05:27 | Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.3499999825 | $2.00 |
| 09-12 17:34 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.2099999895 | $2.00 |
| 09-12 09:04 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.6599998944 | $2.00 |
| 09-12 04:20 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.7399999186 | $2.00 |
| 09-10 04:51 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? | BUY | 0.6099999116 | $2.00 |
| 09-09 08:17 | Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? | BUY | 0.469999906 | $2.00 |