0x130a15d1d0dad29b54c11a5890373bd8c16eb35b
- Realised P&L
- $-3.43
- Volume
- $109.39
- Markets traded
- 29
- Open portfolio
- $13.30
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded29
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration20.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample22 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration25.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? · No | 0.260 | 0.445 | $3.42 | +$1.42 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? · Yes | 0.610 | 0.785 | $2.57 | +$0.57 |
| Will "Nvidia" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? · Yes | 0.680 | 0.655 | $1.93 | −$0.07 |
| Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.0% and 0.8%? · No | 0.700 | 0.665 | $1.90 | −$0.10 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026? · No | 0.790 | 0.595 | $1.51 | −$0.49 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? · Yes | 0.220 | 0.149 | $1.36 | −$0.64 |
| Will Iran target a Arab country on August 6, 2026? · Yes | 0.420 | 0.129 | $0.61 | −$1.39 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.86at 0.380Will Trump say "Stop Calling Me" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?
- +$1.77at 0.410Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?
- +$1.47at 0.520Will Warsh say "Shock" during July Press Conference?
- +$1.08at 0.650Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in July?
- +$0.90at 0.690S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 4?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-05 13:58 | Will Trump say "Tax" 30+ times during remarks in Las Vegas? | BUY | 0.4 | $2.00 |
| 08-05 05:56 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.2599999272 | $2.00 |
| 08-04 17:49 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.7899999289 | $2.00 |
| 08-04 09:46 | Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.0% and 0.8%? | BUY | 0.699999755 | $2.00 |
| 08-04 01:46 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 4? | BUY | 0.6899999586 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 17:43 | Will "Nvidia" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? | BUY | 0.68 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 09:42 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.6099999786 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 00:37 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.2199999164 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 16:36 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.5599999664 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 06:28 | Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in July? | BUY | 0.6499999025 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 22:28 | Will Iran target a Arab country on August 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.4199999454 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 13:42 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.32 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 04:03 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.2099998737 | $1.28 |
| 07-31 19:52 | Another pandemic before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5099999281 | $1.56 |
| 07-31 11:49 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.41 | $1.23 |