phanish
0x12f8c6b2dd36da21ac94e0652986cc08a549bfa5
- Realised P&L
- $-2.4k
- Volume
- $507.4k
- Markets traded
- 1,312
- Open portfolio
- $207.39
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,312
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration22.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)42.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration49.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? · Yes | 0.430 | 0.445 | $103.49 | +$3.49 |
| Trump renames AI by September 30? · No | 0.740 | 0.745 | $100.68 | +$0.68 |
| Will BlackBerry say "Quantum" during earnings call? · Yes | 0.130 | 0.125 | $3.13 | −$0.13 |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on September 23? · Yes | 0.198 | 0.001 | $0.05 | −$20.95 |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on September 23? · Yes | 0.107 | 0.001 | $0.05 | −$9.95 |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on September 23? · Yes | 0.153 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$738.27at 0.142Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?
- +$674.91at 0.319Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026?
- +$411.15at 0.298Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026?
- +$367.75at 0.214Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026?
- +$307.85at 0.570Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-23 17:28 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.4299999991 | $100.00 |
| 09-23 14:34 | Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on September 23? | BUY | 0.1071592093 | $10.00 |
| 09-23 12:56 | Trump renames AI by September 30? | BUY | 0.7399999988 | $100.00 |
| 09-23 12:53 | Will BlackBerry say "Quantum" during earnings call? | BUY | 0.13 | $3.25 |
| 09-23 07:08 | Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on September 23? | BUY | 0.1983252528 | $21.00 |
| 09-23 07:04 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on September 23? | BUY | 0.1526717557 | $20.00 |
| 09-22 23:46 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 21 to September 23, 2026? | SELL | 0.999 | $1.1k |
| 09-22 03:17 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 21 to September 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.7353274656 | $800.00 |
| 09-22 02:59 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | SELL | 0.999 | $674.38 |
| 09-22 02:59 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | SELL | 0.5913304529 | $184.76 |
| 09-21 17:32 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.8887992043 | $600.00 |
| 09-21 17:31 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | SELL | 0.1306525065 | $14.52 |
| 09-21 16:05 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.9932198514 | $41.43 |
| 09-21 15:49 | Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on September 21? | SELL | 0.7238675177 | $41.96 |
| 09-21 06:19 | Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on September 21? | BUY | 0.3256669696 | $18.88 |