skajksj
0x12d91c9f531cdbaf2e6494add442362ab9011a06
- Realised P&L
- $-88.67
- Volume
- $4.1k
- Markets traded
- 78
- Open portfolio
- $11.25
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded78
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration50.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)4.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hotstuff FDV above $20M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.340 | 0.225 | $11.25 | −$5.75 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.10at 0.990Will Little Rock, AR face tornado risk on September 24?
- +$0.10at 0.990Will Charlotte, NC face tornado risk on September 24?
- +$0.00at 0.002Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in September?
- +$0.00at 0.350Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2027?
- +$-0.01at 0.052Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-26 00:33 | Will “Choosin' Texas” by Ella Langley win Single of the Year at the 2026 CMA Awards? | SELL | 0.19 | $0.95 |
| 09-26 00:03 | Will Abstract launch a token by December 31, 2026 | SELL | 0.17 | $8.50 |
| 09-26 00:03 | Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation stay above 3,510 ft? | SELL | 0.38 | $12.45 |
| 09-25 23:44 | Will Russia capture Kindrativka by September 30? | SELL | 0.011 | $0.55 |
| 09-25 23:32 | Will “Choosin' Texas” by Ella Langley win Single of the Year at the 2026 CMA Awards? | SELL | 0.23 | $3.45 |
| 09-25 23:09 | Will Teresa Surita win the second-most votes in the 2026 Roraima Senate election? | SELL | 0.71 | $35.50 |
| 09-25 22:41 | Will 210-229 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 28-October 4? | SELL | 0.09 | $3.02 |
| 09-25 22:35 | LAPTOP airdrop to $TRUMP holders by September 30? | SELL | 0.03 | $0.30 |
| 09-25 19:33 | LAPTOP airdrop to $TRUMP holders by September 30? | SELL | 0.04 | $1.60 |
| 09-25 17:33 | Will the Republican Party win the MO-02 House seat? | SELL | 0.72 | $36.00 |
| 09-25 16:08 | Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day? | SELL | 0.051 | $0.11 |
| 09-25 15:06 | Will “Dry Spell” by Kacey Musgraves win Best Country at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards? | SELL | 0.05 | $1.00 |
| 09-25 15:06 | Will “Choosin' Texas” by Ella Langley win Best Country at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards? | SELL | 0.08 | $1.86 |
| 09-25 14:48 | Will Ink launch a token by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.68 | $34.00 |
| 09-25 12:55 | Unit FDV above $200M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.6 | $30.00 |