0x12d8CBb2a228313be55395a14468891f2D706f74-1782571581611
0x12d8cbb2a228313be55395a14468891f2d706f74
- Realised P&L
- $-20.08
- Volume
- $2.5k
- Markets traded
- 46
- Open portfolio
- $69.32
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded46
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration21.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample39 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)41.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration62.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Luka Doncic win the 2026-27 NBA MVP? · Yes | 0.147 | 0.217 | $43.58 | +$14.11 |
| Will the Dallas Mavericks make the 2027 NBA Playoffs? · Yes | 0.455 | 0.440 | $18.07 | −$0.60 |
| Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? · Yes | 0.023 | 0.028 | $7.04 | +$1.04 |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? · Yes | 0.046 | 0.021 | $0.45 | −$0.55 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.017 | $0.18 | −$0.82 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$8.06at 0.113Will Argentina vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?
- +$5.62at 0.270Will Norway vs. England end in a draw?
- +$5.34at 0.487Will Norway win on 2026-06-30?
- +$5.14at 0.168Will LeBron James play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27?
- +$4.80at 0.419Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-31 07:31 | Will the Dallas Mavericks make the 2027 NBA Playoffs? | BUY | 0.4899999975 | $15.67 |
| 10-24 10:22 | Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.0516590654 | $15.68 |
| 10-23 14:30 | Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0479999999 | $13.45 |
| 10-22 14:00 | Will Luka Doncic win the 2026-27 NBA MVP? | BUY | 0.1499999986 | $10.46 |
| 10-22 13:59 | Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | SELL | 0.165 | $10.51 |
| 10-17 08:25 | Will Luka Doncic win the 2026-27 NBA MVP? | BUY | 0.1449999992 | $19.01 |
| 10-13 14:36 | Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.3139999976 | $10.00 |
| 10-13 14:27 | Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.3139999976 | $10.00 |
| 10-13 14:26 | Will the Dallas Mavericks make the 2027 NBA Playoffs? | BUY | 0.3299999489 | $2.00 |
| 10-13 14:25 | Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? | BUY | 0.0239999999 | $5.00 |
| 10-13 14:23 | Will Liverpool win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship? | SELL | 0.039 | $0.75 |
| 10-13 14:23 | Will Cameron Boozer win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year? | SELL | 0.22 | $0.95 |
| 10-13 14:22 | Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | SELL | 0.033 | $0.58 |
| 10-13 14:22 | Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | SELL | 0.621 | $15.25 |
| 09-08 16:19 | Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.1129999939 | $2.00 |