0x12cf599b4ed1104905d42539e805b7b3e6e01221
0x12cf599b4ed1104905d42539e805b7b3e6e01221
- Realised P&L
- $-61.76
- Volume
- $1.8k
- Markets traded
- 33
- Open portfolio
- $0.25
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded33
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration29.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample44 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)25.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Abstract launch a token by December 31, 2027? · Yes | 0.290 | 0.045 | $0.25 | −$1.35 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$18.30at 0.040Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on September 2?
- +$16.49at 0.100Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.00 Week of August 31 2026?
- +$9.11at 0.210Will USD be between 2.0M and 2.1M Iranian rials on September 30?
- +$4.40at 0.280Airbnb (ABNB) Up or Down on August 31?
- +$3.40at 0.385Will 20-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 31-September 6?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-30 21:30 | Will Abstract launch a token by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.2899999674 | $1.60 |
| 09-11 02:22 | Will Google be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026? | SELL | 0.54 | $10.80 |
| 09-11 02:04 | Will Google be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026? | SELL | 0.38 | $7.60 |
| 09-10 22:45 | Will "The Uprising" score at least 54 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | SELL | 0.5 | $10.00 |
| 09-09 21:16 | Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 11? | SELL | 0.31 | $6.20 |
| 09-09 19:33 | Will "The Uprising" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 4.5m? | SELL | 0.37 | $7.40 |
| 09-09 17:55 | Will the announcers say "Offside" during the 49ers vs Rams game? | SELL | 0.38 | $7.60 |
| 09-09 08:39 | Will "The Fix" score at least 40 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | SELL | 0.44 | $8.80 |
| 09-08 23:51 | Will Auseugalelei Uiti Lagavale win the Falealili 1 by-election? | SELL | 0.4374 | $8.75 |
| 09-08 22:27 | Will Denver Outlaws be named the 2026 Premier League Lacrosse Champion? | SELL | 0.454 | $9.08 |
| 09-08 04:46 | Will Marcio Bittar win the second-most votes in the 2026 Acre Senate election? | BUY | 0.587 | $11.74 |
| 09-08 04:34 | Will Marcio Bittar win the second-most votes in the 2026 Acre Senate election? | SELL | 0.528 | $10.56 |
| 09-08 04:25 | LAPTOP airdrop by September 9? | BUY | 0.64 | $12.80 |
| 09-06 20:15 | Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1? | SELL | 0.54 | $10.80 |
| 09-06 01:45 | Will "Peace" be in the headlines this week? | SELL | 0.0248766667 | $0.75 |