elelondelagente
0x12ccc5f324da4337838dd7a2c5b42c59bc93275d
- Realised P&L
- $-2.6k
- Volume
- $259.3k
- Markets traded
- 1,499
- Open portfolio
- $623.62
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,499
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration9.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)68.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration39.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will PSOE win the second-most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election? · Yes | 0.793 | 0.820 | $246.04 | +$8.17 |
| Venezuela election scheduled by March 31, 2027? · Yes | 0.275 | 0.330 | $132.00 | +$22.15 |
| Will María Corina Machado win the next Venezuelan presidential election? · Yes | 0.420 | 0.535 | $106.99 | +$23.00 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on November 2? · No | 0.751 | 0.695 | $55.60 | −$4.50 |
| Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 17°C on November 2? · No | 0.740 | 0.730 | $36.50 | −$0.50 |
| Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.103 | 0.075 | $30.00 | −$11.06 |
| Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on November 2? · No | 0.817 | 0.785 | $16.48 | −$0.66 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.2kat 0.292Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by December 31?
- +$436.09at 0.256Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025?
- +$362.84at 0.091Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025?
- +$304.78at 0.130Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025?
- +$277.79at 0.315Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-02 00:13 | Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 17°C on November 2? | BUY | 0.74 | $18.50 |
| 11-02 00:12 | Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 17°C on November 2? | BUY | 0.74 | $18.50 |
| 11-02 00:11 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on November 2? | BUY | 0.758 | $37.90 |
| 11-02 00:10 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on November 2? | BUY | 0.74 | $22.20 |
| 11-02 00:05 | Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on November 2? | BUY | 0.85 | $9.35 |
| 11-02 00:04 | Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on November 2? | BUY | 0.78 | $7.80 |
| 11-01 23:08 | Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on November 1? | SELL | 0.134 | $4.02 |
| 11-01 23:07 | Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on November 1? | SELL | 0.999 | $64.93 |
| 11-01 20:57 | Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on November 1? | SELL | 0.99 | $62.68 |
| 11-01 20:55 | Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on November 1? | SELL | 0.99 | $30.08 |
| 11-01 20:55 | Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on November 1? | BUY | 0.8561619487 | $26.01 |
| 11-01 20:50 | Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on November 1? | BUY | 0.84 | $8.40 |
| 11-01 20:48 | Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on November 1? | BUY | 0.77 | $3.85 |
| 11-01 20:41 | Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on November 1? | BUY | 0.899 | $8.99 |
| 11-01 20:40 | Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on November 1? | BUY | 0.8253210011 | $37.92 |