Nancy-Pelosi
0x12c010bd85a7cd6db0a9f3febcbfc31ee6bb7bd8
- Realised P&L
- $4.8k
- Volume
- $5.88M
- Markets traded
- 443
- Open portfolio
- $166.00
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded443
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration21.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)44.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? · Yes | 0.189 | 0.050 | $166.00 | −$460.48 |
| Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30? · No | 0.260 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$130.00 |
| Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by August 31? · Yes | 0.041 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$894.78 |
| Ghislaine Maxwell released from custody in 2025? · Yes | 0.118 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$709.96 |
| Will a cat 5 hurricane make US landfall during Hurricane Season 2025? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$200.00 |
| Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$699.99 |
| Fact Check: Is Tyler Robinson queer? · No | 0.046 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$601.96 |
| Will GPT-5 be released by December 31? · No | 0.029 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$99.59 |
| Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$301.00 |
| Will Ghislaine Maxwell cut a deal with the Feds by August 31? · Yes | 0.216 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.2k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$12.9kat 0.993Will there be a US Government shutdown?
- +$9.0kat 0.079Will Assad remain President of Syria through 2024?
- +$5.0kat 0.197Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?
- +$3.0kat 0.300Will Mike Pompeo be a member of the Trump administration?
- +$2.7kat 0.320Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-04 17:15 | Will GPT-5 be released by August 5? | BUY | 0.13 | $248.69 |
| 07-25 20:18 | Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.2 | $327.98 |
| 04-30 16:44 | New pandemic in 2025? | SELL | 0.09 | $66.91 |
| 01-28 18:58 | RFK Jr. confirmed as Health & Human Services Secretary? | BUY | 0.26 | $1.1k |
| 01-21 02:06 | Will Trump issue 20-24 executive orders on Day 1? | BUY | 0.25 | $495.00 |
| 01-20 23:23 | Will Trump pardon January 6 protestors on Day 1? | BUY | 0.99 | $841.22 |
| 01-20 22:58 | Will Trump issue less than 10 executive orders on Day 1? | BUY | 0.0827350853 | $31.23 |
| 01-20 22:39 | Will Trump pardon January 6 protestors on Day 1? | SELL | 0.3007848523 | $153.29 |
| 01-20 21:27 | Will Trump pardon January 6 protestors on Day 1? | BUY | 0.3097900439 | $295.10 |
| 01-19 19:23 | Mike Johnson out as Speaker before inauguration? | BUY | 0.1723514608 | $1.00 |
| 01-15 22:26 | Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | BUY | 0.11 | $1.5k |
| 01-14 19:51 | Yoon arrested by January 31? | SELL | 0.59 | $2.95 |
| 01-14 19:51 | Yoon arrested by January 31? | SELL | 0.3901871804 | $4.1k |
| 01-10 04:29 | Will Michelle Obama attend presidential inauguration? | BUY | 0.28 | $16.75 |
| 01-10 04:26 | Yoon arrested by Friday? | BUY | 0.0405 | $0.81 |