musk919
0x12984219dee0e727a9a85066ab6e9f3f4aeb4658
- Realised P&L
- $73.65
- Volume
- $77.0k
- Markets traded
- 134
- Open portfolio
- $67.43
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded134
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration32.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)84.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration25.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · No | 0.991 | 0.998 | $16.96 | +$0.11 |
| Will Ethereum hit $4k by December 31, 2027? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.575 | $14.38 | +$1.88 |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in September? · No | 0.998 | 1.000 | $13.00 | +$0.03 |
| Will Bitcoin hit $100k by September 30, 2027? · Yes | 0.710 | 0.645 | $12.90 | −$1.30 |
| Will Ethereum hit $3k by December 31, 2027? · Yes | 0.830 | 0.680 | $10.20 | −$2.25 |
| MetaMask airdrop in 2024? · Yes | 0.026 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.29 |
| Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? · Yes | 0.060 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.26 |
| Will the Bills win the AFC Championship? · Yes | 0.250 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.50 |
| Will the Chicago Bears make the 2024-25 NFL Playoffs? · Yes | 0.005 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.12 |
| Will Mike Rogers be Trump's Defense Secretary? · Yes | 0.032 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.99 |
| Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first? · 90k | 0.375 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.80 |
| Linea airdrop in Q1 2025? · Yes | 0.740 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.70 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$13.33at 0.356Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?
- +$9.44at 0.548Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
- +$7.83at 0.130Will Elon Musk be a member of the Trump administration?
- +$7.20at 0.112Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series?
- +$6.69at 0.630Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-26 06:44 | Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in September? | BUY | 0.998 | $12.97 |
| 09-26 06:44 | Will Bitcoin hit $100k by September 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.71 | $14.20 |
| 09-26 06:44 | Will Ethereum hit $4k by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.5 | $12.50 |
| 09-26 06:43 | Will Ethereum hit $3k by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.83 | $12.45 |
| 08-11 10:47 | Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.991 | $16.85 |
| 08-11 10:46 | Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.34 | $10.20 |
| 08-11 10:46 | Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.72 | $10.79 |
| 08-11 10:45 | Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in August? | BUY | 0.994 | $12.92 |
| 06-05 09:49 | Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.998 | $121.76 |
| 06-05 09:48 | Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | SELL | 0.926 | $11.07 |
| 06-05 09:48 | Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | SELL | 0.979 | $13.82 |
| 06-05 09:47 | Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | SELL | 0.998 | $17.96 |
| 06-05 09:47 | Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | SELL | 0.998 | $20.96 |
| 05-04 08:08 | Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May? | BUY | 0.998 | $32.93 |
| 05-04 08:07 | Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | BUY | 0.998 | $20.96 |