KyleBradley1729
0x128ee60a2e78e7b26fce1f346da38ce48965001d
- Realised P&L
- $-24.50
- Volume
- $134.3k
- Markets traded
- 149
- Open portfolio
- $104.02
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded149
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration26.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration64.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam? · No | 0.530 | 1.000 | $67.00 | +$31.49 |
| Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30? · No | 0.890 | 1.000 | $27.00 | +$2.97 |
| Fannie Mae IPO before 2027? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.065 | $9.29 | −$25.02 |
| Rippling IPO before 2027? · Yes | 0.190 | 0.045 | $0.72 | −$2.32 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$468.23at 0.490Will South Africa win on 2026-03-31?
- +$218.75at 0.160Will Italy be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?
- +$187.95at 0.760Will Bitcoin outperform NVIDIA (NVDA) in March 2026?
- +$173.55at 0.300Will there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?
- +$123.81at 0.839Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs. Jacksonville State Gamecocks
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-21 09:17 | Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam? | SELL | 0.6 | $6.00 |
| 04-12 20:55 | Will MetaMask launch a token by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.68 | $94.52 |
| 04-12 20:40 | Will MetaMask launch a token by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.68 | $163.88 |
| 04-12 20:33 | Will MetaMask launch a token by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.68 | $234.60 |
| 04-12 08:28 | Will MetaMask launch a token by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.69 | $98.67 |
| 04-09 13:11 | Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam? | SELL | 0.28 | $148.12 |
| 04-09 13:09 | Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam? | SELL | 0.28 | $13.72 |
| 04-07 22:16 | Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30? | BUY | 0.89 | $24.03 |
| 04-07 19:49 | Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam? | BUY | 0.53 | $347.15 |
| 04-07 13:14 | Will MetaMask launch a token by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.71 | $616.28 |
| 03-30 14:34 | Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen by April 30? | SELL | 0.63 | $175.77 |
| 03-29 23:12 | Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen by April 30? | BUY | 0.67 | $186.93 |
| 03-25 17:18 | Will Jurgen Klopp be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? | SELL | 0.83 | $590.96 |
| 03-24 07:34 | U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.71 | $88.04 |
| 03-24 07:32 | U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.71 | $423.87 |