Halley01
0x128b01c68900a23798d151b7f56942d9f6fb7c4f
- Realised P&L
- $-1.2k
- Volume
- $156.0k
- Markets traded
- 166
- Open portfolio
- $4.4k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded166
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration28.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)96.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration30.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$808.32at 0.141Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw?
- +$464.91at 0.225Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw?
- +$412.52at 0.876Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after March 2026 meeting?
- +$278.85at 0.464Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be below -4% in May?
- +$248.65at 0.834Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-05 03:31 | Will Goldman Sachs fail by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.985 | $39.40 |
| 07-02 22:19 | Will Goldman Sachs fail by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.984 | $9.84 |
| 07-02 03:43 | Will the June 2026 unemployment rate be 4.5%? | BUY | 0.9689999999 | $200.00 |
| 07-02 02:34 | Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the July interest rate announcement? | BUY | 0.9947585969 | $800.00 |
| 07-02 02:29 | Will Deutsche Bank fail by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.984 | $170.00 |
| 07-02 01:58 | Will United States win on 2026-07-01? | BUY | 0.993 | $500.00 |
| 07-02 01:57 | Will United States win on 2026-07-01? | BUY | 0.989 | $500.00 |
| 07-02 01:57 | Will United States win on 2026-07-01? | BUY | 0.9908641773 | $400.00 |
| 07-02 01:50 | Will United States win on 2026-07-01? | BUY | 0.978 | $700.00 |
| 07-02 01:08 | Will Lloyds fail by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.987 | $197.40 |
| 07-02 00:37 | Will Deutsche Bank fail by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.984 | $39.36 |
| 07-02 00:37 | Will Deutsche Bank fail by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.984 | $39.36 |
| 07-02 00:37 | Will Deutsche Bank fail by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.984 | $39.36 |
| 07-02 00:36 | Will Deutsche Bank fail by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.984 | $39.36 |
| 07-02 00:36 | Will Deutsche Bank fail by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.984 | $39.36 |