OrientSunshine
0x123de0ad4c48b38afe04769bad4b4739cb0baa74
- Realised P&L
- $-8.4k
- Volume
- $84.3k
- Markets traded
- 7
- Open portfolio
- $5.9k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-10.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded7
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration54.1% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample6 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.231 | 0.135 | $5.9k | −$4.1k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$540.18at 0.484Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?
- +$340.40at 0.270Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
- +$118.50at 0.170Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
- +$-25.00at 0.180Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
- +$-100.00at 0.220Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-12 19:53 | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | SELL | 0.003 | $54.29 |
| 04-12 18:05 | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | BUY | 0.1399999995 | $200.00 |
| 04-11 03:31 | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | BUY | 0.3 | $4.5k |
| 04-10 22:47 | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | BUY | 0.2999999997 | $500.00 |
| 02-28 14:29 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | SELL | 0.73 | $540.20 |
| 02-28 14:09 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | SELL | 0.3714260581 | $218.51 |
| 01-26 15:18 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.27 | $199.80 |
| 01-26 15:15 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | BUY | 0.17 | $100.01 |
| 01-22 02:49 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? | BUY | 0.4899999916 | $25.00 |
| 01-22 02:47 | Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | SELL | 0.09 | $25.00 |
| 01-20 04:42 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? | BUY | 0.52 | $52.00 |
| 01-14 06:06 | Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.2305191596 | $10.0k |
| 01-13 06:21 | Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | BUY | 0.1799999976 | $50.00 |
| 01-09 08:38 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? | BUY | 0.5199999958 | $50.00 |
| 01-07 06:15 | Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | BUY | 0.2199999985 | $100.00 |