humbleBaker
0x1237d0dbe4ea22337bf82bc3fb36e81b708306af
- Realised P&L
- $-163.74
- Volume
- $788.5k
- Markets traded
- 745
- Open portfolio
- $708.06
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded745
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration39.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)44.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration64.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.879 | 0.935 | $457.69 | +$27.38 |
| Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026? · No | 0.810 | 0.805 | $220.57 | −$1.37 |
| Will Olivier Faure win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections? · No | 0.790 | 0.795 | $15.90 | +$0.10 |
| Will Texas Rangers win the 2026 AL West title? · Yes | 0.220 | 0.390 | $7.80 | +$3.40 |
| Will Linda Gorton win the 2026 Lexington mayoral election? · No | 0.280 | 0.085 | $5.46 | −$12.52 |
| Will Todd Achilles win the Idaho Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.077 | 0.013 | $0.62 | −$2.91 |
| Will the Moderate Party (M) win the third most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? · Yes | 0.810 | 0.001 | $0.02 | −$29.44 |
| Will Alexander Vindman be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Florida? · Yes | 0.875 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$364.32 |
| Will Gavin Solomon advance from the AK-AL primary election? · Yes | 0.040 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.75 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.5kat 0.500Will 'Honey' be the least streamed song on The Life of a Showgirl on Oct 10th?
- +$350.00at 0.500Will Sora by OpenAI be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 10?
- +$220.34at 0.001Will Xi visit the US before September?
- +$200.18at 0.590Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in August?
- +$195.34at 0.015UK strike on Iran before July?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-14 20:17 | Will Green Party win the third-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election? | SELL | 0.54 | $30.24 |
| 09-14 19:40 | Will PI get the third-most number of seats in the next Moroccan legislative elections? | SELL | 0.56 | $15.34 |
| 09-14 19:40 | Will voter turnout be between 53% and 56% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.293 | $2.32 |
| 09-06 22:23 | Will the Democrats win the Colorado governor race in 2026? | SELL | 0.022 | $0.76 |
| 09-06 22:23 | Will Partido Liberal (PL) hold the most seats as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election? | SELL | 0.11 | $7.85 |
| 09-06 22:23 | Yoon out of custody before 2027? | SELL | 0.937 | $46.85 |
| 09-06 22:22 | Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Labour + Green + Maori? | SELL | 0.8595986038 | $49.25 |
| 09-06 22:22 | Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.94 | $103.30 |
| 09-06 22:22 | Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.06 | $4.37 |
| 09-03 23:24 | Will AfD win 38-41 seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? | BUY | 0.25 | $19.23 |
| 09-03 23:04 | Will Olivier Faure win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections? | BUY | 0.79 | $15.80 |
| 09-02 23:04 | Will PI get the third-most number of seats in the next Moroccan legislative elections? | BUY | 0.5342887931 | $49.58 |
| 09-02 07:54 | Will Marine Le Pen advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? | SELL | 0.8442869391 | $29.54 |
| 09-02 07:54 | Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election? | SELL | 0.06 | $3.43 |
| 09-02 07:53 | Will New People (NL) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.036 | $5.40 |