denniswin
0x121a4d17df6e147ffa6c9ea1f357bb1a5760ca6b
- Realised P&L
- $477.86
- Volume
- $203.4k
- Markets traded
- 50
- Open portfolio
- $3.3k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded50
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration34.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample31 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)45.2%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration61.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.6kat 0.258Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election?
- +$1.2kat 0.370Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
- +$915.34at 0.283Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent for Treasury Secretary?
- +$627.11at 0.590Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
- +$542.69at 0.865Will Trump nominate Marco Rubio for Secretary of State?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-08 04:36 | Will the Republicans win Tarrant County in the Texas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.0650999894 | $10.00 |
| 10-08 04:32 | Will the Republicans win Tarrant County in the Texas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.062811565 | $10.00 |
| 10-08 04:02 | Will the Republicans win Tarrant County in the Texas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.0554361657 | $100.00 |
| 10-08 03:58 | Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.35 | $385.00 |
| 10-08 03:57 | Will the Republicans win Tarrant County in the Texas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.032 | $1.37 |
| 10-06 00:44 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.08 | $264.00 |
| 10-06 00:39 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.838 | $2.0k |
| 09-17 00:13 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | BUY | 0.066 | $99.00 |
| 09-16 23:41 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.45 | $495.00 |
| 09-16 14:42 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.36 | $396.00 |
| 09-14 03:03 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | BUY | 0.29 | $394.40 |
| 09-13 00:57 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.8 | $1.9k |
| 07-03 14:23 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | BUY | 0.4 | $170.40 |
| 07-02 01:01 | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.13 | $85.80 |
| 06-22 01:59 | Will Cape Verde be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? | BUY | 0.011 | $0.02 |