onealpaul
0x11ee24313d3907dc25105d62bd8c6a8087287df9
- Realised P&L
- $10.61
- Volume
- $11.4k
- Markets traded
- 82
- Open portfolio
- $35.96
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded82
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration88.6% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)92.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration40.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party win the FL-14 House seat? · Yes | 0.640 | 0.645 | $14.54 | +$0.11 |
| Will Seoul have less than 75mm of precipitation in September? · Yes | 0.760 | 0.795 | $12.96 | +$0.57 |
| Will Angelica Katsanidou be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Kalmar County? · Yes | 0.915 | 0.837 | $8.46 | −$0.79 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$21.43at 0.350Will Biden pardon Liz Cheney?
- +$12.78at 0.440Will the Chiefs win the AFC Championship?
- +$11.39at 0.680Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?
- +$9.83at 0.714Liverpool wins the Premier League?
- +$0.34at 0.250Bitcoin above $103,000 on January 24?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-07 06:57 | Will Angelica Katsanidou be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Kalmar County? | BUY | 0.914999997 | $9.25 |
| 01-31 13:42 | Will Lighter dip to $1.00 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $4.60 |
| 01-30 14:59 | Will Saudi Aramco be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28? | BUY | 0.998 | $7.03 |
| 01-30 14:28 | Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $8.37 |
| 01-30 14:27 | Will OpenAI have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $17.99 |
| 01-30 12:44 | Will Solana reach $150 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $34.32 |
| 12-30 16:21 | Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $9.72 |
| 12-30 11:52 | Will Russia capture Slovainsk in 2025? | BUY | 0.9989999422 | $10.39 |
| 12-29 21:07 | Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2025? | BUY | 0.992 | $3.28 |
| 12-29 20:48 | Will XRP reach $3.20 before 2026? | BUY | 0.9980000013 | $6.24 |
| 12-29 19:52 | Xi Jinping out in 2025? | BUY | 0.9969999361 | $14.19 |
| 12-29 19:29 | Will Trump pardon Diddy in 2025? | BUY | 0.998 | $24.73 |
| 10-31 00:01 | Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in October? | BUY | 0.992999966 | $16.91 |
| 10-30 20:02 | Will Solana reach $250 in October? | BUY | 0.999 | $22.54 |
| 10-30 18:43 | Will Oracle be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30? | BUY | 0.999 | $19.96 |