0x11e45286eff83cea570201fada2821c35157ce06
- Realised P&L
- $6.91
- Volume
- $231.33
- Markets traded
- 48
- Open portfolio
- $9.77
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar3.0%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded48
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample41 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)48.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration29.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 14 to September 16, 2026? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.375 | $2.88 | +$0.88 |
| Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? · No | 0.770 | 0.955 | $2.48 | +$0.48 |
| Will Warsh say "Anchor" or "Anchored" during September Press Conference? · No | 0.680 | 0.675 | $1.99 | −$0.01 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? · No | 0.210 | 0.125 | $1.19 | −$0.81 |
| Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $178 Week of September 14 2026? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.080 | $0.67 | −$1.33 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.410 | 0.115 | $0.56 | −$1.44 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? · No | 0.340 | 0.001 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.44at 0.218Will ISM Services PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in July?
- +$6.26at 0.249Will the Bank of Israel cut by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting?
- +$5.92at 0.259Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026?
- +$5.62at 0.270Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026?
- +$3.99at 0.341Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-15 22:29 | Will Warsh say "Anchor" or "Anchored" during September Press Conference? | BUY | 0.68 | $2.00 |
| 09-15 14:10 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 14 to September 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.2599999896 | $2.00 |
| 09-14 18:10 | Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $178 Week of September 14 2026? | BUY | 0.2399999808 | $2.00 |
| 09-14 10:09 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.77 | $2.00 |
| 09-13 14:02 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 12 to September 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.5899999145 | $2.00 |
| 09-13 05:29 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.6499999025 | $2.00 |
| 09-12 14:59 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.2599999896 | $2.00 |
| 09-12 06:56 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.2099999895 | $2.00 |
| 09-08 13:22 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? | BUY | 0.3399999966 | $2.00 |
| 09-08 05:19 | Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $68 Week of September 7 2026? | BUY | 0.2799999664 | $2.00 |
| 09-07 19:54 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026? | BUY | 0.7699998807 | $2.00 |
| 09-07 11:40 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $2.00 |
| 09-02 08:49 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 3 to September 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.5499999725 | $2.00 |
| 09-02 00:47 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on September 2? | BUY | 0.4499999212 | $2.00 |
| 09-02 00:21 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.4099999446 | $2.00 |