etasdfs
0x11ccc521cebfc08eb8b7badb6748b5eeff71d353
- Realised P&L
- $-2.22
- Volume
- $8.6k
- Markets traded
- 100
- Open portfolio
- $11.20
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded100
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration6.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration83.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in October? · No | 0.997 | 0.999 | $9.31 | +$0.01 |
| Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? · No | 0.750 | 0.745 | $1.89 | −$0.01 |
| Will Elon tweet 210–224 times July 11–18? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Spread: 49ers (-8.5) · 49ers | 0.500 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will annual inflation increase by 3.3% or more in September? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Wild vs. Rangers · Rangers | 0.570 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.30 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 18? · No | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.60 |
| Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on January 6? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.20 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.62at 0.890Ethereum above $2,000 on April 4?
- +$0.29at 0.997Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?
- +$0.20at 0.830Will Zelensky wear suit next Trump meeting?
- +$0.19at 0.998Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 17?
- +$0.19at 0.998Will the price of Bitcoin be between $92,000 and $94,000 on January 27?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-08 13:07 | Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in October? | BUY | 0.9969999949 | $9.30 |
| 10-08 13:00 | Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? | BUY | 0.7499998026 | $1.90 |
| 09-25 09:47 | Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $11.30 |
| 09-25 09:44 | Spread: 49ers (-8.5) | BUY | 0.5 | $1.00 |
| 07-29 12:29 | Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in July? | BUY | 0.999 | $12.10 |
| 06-09 13:00 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? | BUY | 0.999 | $100.00 |
| 06-05 11:54 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 5? | BUY | 0.999 | $100.00 |
| 05-25 12:25 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 25? | BUY | 0.999 | $100.00 |
| 05-21 09:39 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 21? | BUY | 0.999 | $99.00 |
| 05-15 11:08 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 15? | BUY | 0.9989999909 | $99.00 |
| 05-09 12:57 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 9? | BUY | 0.999 | $99.00 |
| 05-06 06:34 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 6? | BUY | 0.999 | $99.00 |
| 04-29 07:47 | Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? | BUY | 0.998 | $99.00 |
| 04-25 08:30 | Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $84,000 on April 26? | BUY | 0.999 | $98.99 |
| 04-19 10:54 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on April 20? | BUY | 0.999 | $98.99 |