BGoldwater
0x11cc92be0661d25ff677fe24b7d467e4e9f851b5
- Realised P&L
- $-18.92
- Volume
- $1.1k
- Markets traded
- 18
- Open portfolio
- $305.61
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded18
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration39.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample8 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)75.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration28.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republicans win the New Hampshire governor race in 2026? · Yes | 0.798 | 0.832 | $86.40 | +$3.47 |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.860 | 0.945 | $62.22 | +$5.62 |
| Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.762 | 0.725 | $52.33 | −$2.67 |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.470 | 0.735 | $39.10 | +$14.10 |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House · Yes | 0.690 | 0.715 | $36.27 | +$1.27 |
| Will Inde Navarrette be the #1 searched actor on Google this year? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.575 | $17.25 | +$2.25 |
| Will Jaafar Jackson be the #1 searched actor on Google this year? · Yes | 0.148 | 0.194 | $6.54 | +$1.54 |
| Will Pope Leo XIV be TIME Person of the Year 2026? · Yes | 0.110 | 0.180 | $4.91 | +$1.91 |
| Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia? · Yes | 0.729 | 0.014 | $0.60 | −$30.40 |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.836 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$14.36at 0.738Starmer out by December 31, 2026?
- +$10.48at 0.832Will Plaid Cymru win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election?
- +$7.71at 0.866Will Reform UK win the most council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?
- +$2.77at 0.769Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?
- +$0.91at 0.288Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-26 09:03 | Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.32 | $9.14 |
| 10-26 09:03 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | SELL | 0.7 | $19.44 |
| 10-22 23:36 | Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia? | BUY | 0.729125047 | $25.00 |
| 10-22 23:34 | Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia? | BUY | 0.7284536168 | $6.00 |
| 10-22 23:33 | Will GameStop acquire eBay? | SELL | 0.93 | $5.58 |
| 10-22 23:32 | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | BUY | 0.6899999957 | $35.00 |
| 10-22 23:32 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.7199999942 | $20.00 |
| 10-08 15:46 | Will Pope Leo XIV be TIME Person of the Year 2026? | BUY | 0.1099999971 | $3.00 |
| 10-07 23:06 | Will Jaafar Jackson be the #1 searched actor on Google this year? | BUY | 0.1479999991 | $5.00 |
| 10-07 22:53 | Will Inde Navarrette be the #1 searched actor on Google this year? | BUY | 0.5 | $15.00 |
| 10-05 16:39 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.8359999642 | $10.00 |
| 10-05 16:39 | Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.2799999958 | $8.00 |
| 10-05 16:35 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.8359999642 | $10.00 |
| 10-05 16:35 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.16 | $11.05 |
| 08-01 18:11 | Will the Republicans win the New Hampshire governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.8079800481 | $20.00 |