sludgelife
0x11b9d90b226e29d29b2cb52f82e30452ee8fd361
- Realised P&L
- $175.19
- Volume
- $98.9k
- Markets traded
- 388
- Open portfolio
- $938.92
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded388
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration43.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)68.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration3.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$358.60at 0.488Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch?
- +$125.00at 0.750US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
- +$42.00at 0.790Opinion FDV above $600M one day after launch?
- +$29.55at 0.942Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch?
- +$19.46at 0.611Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be below -4% in May?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-31 22:42 | Will Arch Network launch a token by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.65 | $13.00 |
| 10-11 17:00 | Will Waymo launch in New Orleans, LA by December 31 2026? | SELL | 0.85 | $28.90 |
| 09-25 23:42 | Will OpenAI resume US ChatGPT Pro signups by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.81 | $8.51 |
| 09-03 14:11 | Extended FDV above $1B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.95 | $9.97 |
| 08-06 20:23 | Extended FDV above $800M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.93 | $9.12 |
| 07-29 17:12 | Will ACM Neto win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election? | SELL | 0.691734 | $34.59 |
| 07-23 03:32 | Will Wynn Resorts (WYNN) beat quarterly earnings? | SELL | 0.75 | $15.00 |
| 07-22 17:00 | Will voter turnout be between 78% and 80% in the 2026 New Zealand general election? | SELL | 0.72 | $5.04 |
| 07-22 17:00 | Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? | SELL | 0.85 | $9.01 |
| 07-17 17:25 | Will UK annual inflation be 2.1% or less in June? | SELL | 0.9204132231 | $11.14 |
| 07-08 23:57 | Yoon out of custody before 2027? | SELL | 0.899 | $27.51 |
| 07-04 06:56 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $176 in July? | SELL | 0.68 | $34.00 |
| 07-04 06:56 | Will two SpaceX Starships dock together by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.79 | $6.40 |
| 07-03 09:37 | Ostium FDV above $2B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.937556314 | $65.93 |
| 06-30 01:35 | Will two SpaceX Starships dock together by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.79 | $79.00 |