0x11B471c0786bbD839880c6636e6C917D9BeEfd3b-1763523163796
0x11b471c0786bbd839880c6636e6c917d9beefd3b
- Realised P&L
- $-74.80
- Volume
- $1.2k
- Markets traded
- 19
- Open portfolio
- $13.87
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-6.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded19
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration39.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample13 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)30.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration64.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Toronto Raptors win the 2027 NBA Finals? · Yes | 0.036 | 0.029 | $8.93 | −$2.07 |
| Mike Vrabel out as Patriots Head Coach by Dec 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.358 | 0.045 | $2.51 | −$17.49 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · Yes | 0.190 | 0.038 | $2.43 | −$9.57 |
| Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? · Yes | 0.016 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Trump out as President by March 31? · Yes | 0.077 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? · Yes | 0.111 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.36at 0.440Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?
- +$4.26at 0.540Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?
- +$3.20at 0.610Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?
- +$2.35at 0.68049ers vs. Colts
- +$-1.85at 0.370Rams vs. Falcons
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-01 18:48 | Will Toronto Raptors win the 2027 NBA Finals? | BUY | 0.0363456755 | $11.00 |
| 05-07 23:09 | Mike Vrabel out as Patriots Head Coach by Dec 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3581526763 | $20.00 |
| 03-20 16:05 | Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? | BUY | 0.1108789945 | $5.00 |
| 03-19 03:45 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY | 0.1899999894 | $12.00 |
| 01-29 17:08 | Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to the Golden State Warriors? | BUY | 0.1966745052 | $10.00 |
| 01-08 04:49 | Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? | BUY | 0.6099999756 | $5.00 |
| 01-07 02:32 | Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark by? | BUY | 0.2489999661 | $5.00 |
| 01-07 02:32 | Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? | BUY | 0.4599999595 | $5.00 |
| 12-30 03:21 | Rams vs. Falcons | BUY | 0.37 | $1.85 |
| 12-22 22:07 | 49ers vs. Colts | BUY | 0.6799999728 | $5.00 |
| 12-11 02:10 | Spurs vs. Lakers | BUY | 0.7199999654 | $5.00 |
| 12-11 02:09 | Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.2 | $5.00 |
| 11-22 23:20 | Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? | BUY | 0.016 | $5.00 |
| 11-19 05:08 | Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in November? | BUY | 0.1390000039 | $5.00 |
| 11-19 04:52 | Will Trump talk to Elon Musk in November? | BUY | 0.2179999737 | $5.00 |