0x11b2a5df5f36f8573b1c3408540a3c812b7b6d33
- Realised P&L
- $-10.19
- Volume
- $84.1k
- Markets traded
- 971
- Open portfolio
- $55.43
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded971
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration46.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)62.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration36.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$39.57at 0.050Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026?
- +$9.13at 0.250US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?
- +$8.45at 0.150Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?
- +$7.56at 0.011U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30?
- +$6.57at 0.201Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-31 12:23 | Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be less than 400m by August 31? | BUY | 0.001 | $0.60 |
| 07-31 00:40 | Will "Hannibal: Season 1" be the top global Netflix show this week? | BUY | 0.001 | $0.11 |
| 07-28 10:19 | Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | BUY | 0.001 | $0.01 |
| 07-28 10:19 | Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $3.20 and $3.50 on July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.001 | $0.04 |
| 07-28 10:19 | Will "Stupid Song - Olivia Rodrigo" be the #2 US song this week? | BUY | 0.001 | $0.57 |
| 07-28 10:19 | Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $1.20T on July 31? | BUY | 0.001 | $0.35 |
| 07-11 11:27 | UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 2026? | SELL | 0.032 | $0.06 |
| 07-10 21:29 | Tread FDV above $100M one day after launch | SELL | 0.21 | $0.75 |
| 07-05 08:36 | Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.029 | $68.99 |
| 06-27 16:50 | Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? | SELL | 0.037 | $1.83 |
| 06-21 08:59 | Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.11 | $1.73 |
| 06-19 01:14 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? | SELL | 0.504 | $4.84 |
| 06-17 01:14 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? | BUY | 0.17 | $1.63 |
| 06-15 20:05 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.09 | $0.51 |
| 06-14 20:46 | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.28 | $1.60 |