PigsandBattleships
0x118852126aa33e29b161a449338c2306e6f21d1f
- Realised P&L
- $-7.0k
- Volume
- $27.0k
- Markets traded
- 32
- Open portfolio
- $678.42
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-25.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded32
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration32.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample10 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration38.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$194.75at 0.316Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting?
- +$92.31at 0.520Will Kamala flip Trump on Polymarket in August?
- +$71.69at 0.830Will the Virginia redistricting referendum pass?
- +$58.52at 0.710Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
- +$47.02at 0.600Will Beyoncé perform at the DNC?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-15 04:27 | Blue wave in 2026? | BUY | 0.78 | $16.79 |
| 09-15 04:21 | Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | BUY | 0.31 | $248.00 |
| 09-15 04:19 | Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.61 | $183.00 |
| 09-15 04:18 | Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.538 | $215.20 |
| 04-28 21:09 | Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? | BUY | 0.09 | $108.00 |
| 04-28 21:08 | Will Trump say "Ballroom" during King Charles visit? | BUY | 0.65 | $25.00 |
| 04-28 21:06 | Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? | BUY | 0.08 | $5.38 |
| 04-21 04:44 | Will the Virginia redistricting referendum pass? | BUY | 0.8299999992 | $350.00 |
| 04-21 04:43 | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | SELL | 0.987 | $208.51 |
| 04-09 06:07 | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | BUY | 0.709999996 | $150.00 |
| 03-15 22:10 | Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | BUY | 0.7899999997 | $100.00 |
| 03-15 22:09 | Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | BUY | 0.3227525833 | $20.00 |
| 03-15 22:09 | Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | BUY | 0.1699999941 | $20.00 |
| 11-05 17:56 | Will Kamala Harris win all 6 swing states? | BUY | 0.118491952 | $100.00 |
| 11-05 17:56 | Will a Democrat win North Carolina Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.2999999992 | $200.00 |